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The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +3 594.50₴

Invest 24 726.49₴

Average return 28 320.99₴

ROI +14.5%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 64 423.09₴ · profit at most −36 102.10₴ (at most -56.0%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) × 9 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 23433.77 → 61630.80 ₴

XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1292.72 → 2792.28 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −24 497 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection

+3 594.50 ₴ +14.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) · 34 348.94 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −24 497 ₴

9× USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+14 716.42 ₴ +149.3% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 36 630.38 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 860 ₴

1× M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
9× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection

+13 266.84 ₴ +152.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 36 630.38 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 468 ₴

1× SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
1× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
8× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745

Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+6 278.20 ₴ +45.6% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) · 34 348.94 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 777 ₴

4× M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641
6× Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043

Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+4 922.36 ₴ +27.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) · 34 348.94 ₴ · chance 5.0%

profit on prices without salesat least −18 195 ₴

1× USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
8× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 572.91 ₴ +14.3% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) · 34 348.94 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −24 772 ₴

9× USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

USP-S | Spiral Glitch

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

23 433.77 ₴

at 2 603.75

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

1 292.72 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24 726.49 ₴ +3 594.50 (+14.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −10 150 ₴

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

4 060.92 ₴

at 1 353.64

Steam

×2

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

1 231.84 ₴

at 615.92

Steam

×5

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

6 463.62 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 756.37 ₴ +888.61 (+7.6%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

best

AK-47 | AUTOEXEC

Factory New

39 501.27 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol

Factory New

31 646.14 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Minimal Wear

5 776.67 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

P2000 | Fire Elemental

Factory New

5 279.39 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -228.42 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 168.66 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Spy Tech Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1742971 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 3 572.91₴ · invest 24 925.40₴
profit on prices without salesat least −24 772 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New); USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1713088 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 3 237.70₴ · invest 25 031.95₴
profit on prices without salesat least −24 603 ₴ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New); USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.076511

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build