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The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +5 224.23₴

Invest 15 457.90₴

Average return 20 682.13₴

ROI +33.8%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 39 953.22₴ · profit at most −19 271.09₴ (at most -48.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 13966.27 → 36731.29 ₴

P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1491.63 → 3221.93 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −15 305 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

+5 224.23 ₴ +33.8% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | LongDog (Factory New) · 22 249.02 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −15 305 ₴

9× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+14 662.67 ₴ +162.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 36 630.38 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 045 ₴

1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1624
9× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection

+13 094.34 ₴ +144.7% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 36 630.38 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 894 ₴

1× P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
1× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
8× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745

Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+6 170.74 ₴ +43.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | LongDog (Factory New) · 22 249.02 ₴ · chance 80%

profit on prices without salesat least −14 189 ₴

1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1634
7× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
2× Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041

Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Winter Offensive Collection

+5 245.82 ₴ +34.4% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AWP | LongDog (Factory New) · 22 249.02 ₴ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −15 029 ₴

9× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 6 only The Train 2025 Collection

+5 105.84 ₴ +29.8% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AWP | LongDog (Factory New) · 22 249.02 ₴ · chance 100%

profit on prices without salesat least −17 143 ₴

9× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

13 966.27 ₴

at 1 551.81

Steam

×1

P250 | Mehndi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

1 491.63 ₴

at 1 491.63

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15 457.90 ₴ +5 224.23 (+33.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −11 413 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1710

1 616.75 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

×2

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

3 103.62 ₴

at 1 551.81

Steam

×5

P250 | Mehndi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

7 458.16 ₴

at 1 491.63

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12 178.53 ₴ +2 236.05 (+18.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −9 935 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1710

1 616.75 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

×2

P250 | Mehndi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

1 931.46 ₴

at 965.73

Steam

×5

P250 | Mehndi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

7 458.16 ₴

at 1 491.63

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 006.38 ₴ +274.44 (+2.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −13 340 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MP9 | Latte Rush

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

538.92 ₴

at 538.92

Steam

×6

MP9 | Latte Rush

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

9 310.85 ₴

at 1 551.81

Steam

×1

P250 | Mehndi

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

965.73 ₴

at 965.73

Steam

×2

P250 | Mehndi

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

2 983.26 ₴

at 1 491.63

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13 798.76 ₴ +3 749.60 (+27.2%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

best

AWP | LongDog

Factory New

25 586.37 ₴ 90.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

11 614.29 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | The Kraken

Factory New

3 520.05 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 864.69 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 763.51 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Train 2025 Collection and The Winter Offensive Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1743033 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 245.82₴ · invest 15 259.00₴
profit on prices without salesat least −15 029 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) instead of P250 | Mehndi (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.077088
Craft 1713097 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 4 889.02₴ · invest 15 564.45₴
profit on prices without salesat least −15 135 ₴ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) instead of P250 | Mehndi (Factory New); MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.077088

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build