The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +275.59₴

Invest 776.44₴

Average return 1 052.03₴

ROI +35.5%

Chance of profit 48%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 934.39₴ · profit at most −882.36₴ (at most -45.6%) · chance of profit at most 20%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 54.01 → 116.66 ₴

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) × 7 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 650.44 → 1658.62 ₴

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested) × 2 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.21 72.00 → 159.11 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −268 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection

+275.59 ₴ +35.5% chance of profit 48%

expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) · 2 060.15 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −268 ₴

1× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648
7× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0045
2× StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1648

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+3 867.25 ₴ +193.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 26 120.27 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 721 ₴

1× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 753.45 ₴ +179.7% chance of profit 36%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 26 120.27 ₴ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 862 ₴

1× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
9× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0857

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+3 644.63 ₴ +189.8% chance of profit 30%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 24 263.20 ₴ · chance 10%

profit on prices without salesat least −1 871 ₴

7× StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
3× StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0838

Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+2 251.40 ₴ +23.2% chance of profit 47%

expensive: StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) · 24 263.20 ₴ · chance 23%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 530 ₴

2× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
1 more

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+360.16 ₴ +43.2% chance of profit 35%

expensive: StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) · 2 961.70 ₴ · chance 15%

profit on prices without salesat least −484 ₴

4× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
6× StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

54.01 ₴

at 54.01

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

650.44 ₴

at 92.92

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

72.00 ₴

at 36.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 776.44 ₴ +275.59 (+35.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −477 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

89.86 ₴

at 89.86

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

185.84 ₴

at 92.92

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

36.00 ₴

at 36.00

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

399.28 ₴

at 66.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 710.99 ₴ +200.25 (+28.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 52%

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

471.59 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

1 613.38 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

2 369.18 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

644.26 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence

Factory New

1 346.78 ₴ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate

Factory New

404.19 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion

Factory New

2 101.61 ₴ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

419.20 ₴ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP7 | Impire

Factory New

482.07 ₴ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +109.49 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +243.36 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build