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The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +1 985.22₴

Invest 10 997.86₴

Average return 12 983.09₴

ROI +18.1%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 26 654.88₴ · profit at most −13 671.79₴ (at most -51.3%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) × 3 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 1847.75 → 4175.92 ₴

XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) × 6 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 7756.35 → 19468.43 ₴

Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1393.76 → 3010.52 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −8 932 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection

+1 985.23 ₴ +18.1% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 21 415.40 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 932 ₴

3× SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
6× XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057
1× Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0057

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+13 713.97 ₴ +151.5% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 36 630.38 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −9 050 ₴

1× Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
2× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
7× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+13 266.84 ₴ +152.5% chance of profit 90%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 36 630.38 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 468 ₴

1× SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
1× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
8× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745

Variant 4 only The Wildfire Collection

+2 147.21 ₴ +20.2% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 21 206.15 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 656 ₴

9× AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

Variant 5 only The Vanguard Collection

+2 106.26 ₴ +19.3% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 21 415.40 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 601 ₴

3× SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
7× XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+1 588.31 ₴ +15.0% chance of profit 45%

expensive: AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 21 206.15 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −10 439 ₴

8× AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
1× P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

1 847.75 ₴

at 615.92

Steam

×6

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

7 756.35 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

×1

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

1 393.76 ₴

at 1 393.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 997.86 ₴ +1 985.22 (+18.1%)

profit on prices without sales at least −10 585 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0772

1 847.75 ₴

at 615.92

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

1 292.72 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

×6

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

8 362.57 ₴

at 1 393.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 503.04 ₴ +1 380.04 (+12.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −10 254 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

1 847.75 ₴

at 615.92

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

2 585.45 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

×5

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

6 968.80 ₴

at 1 393.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 402.01 ₴ +1 501.08 (+13.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −9 924 ₴

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0769

1 847.75 ₴

at 615.92

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

3 878.17 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

×4

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

5 575.04 ₴

at 1 393.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 300.97 ₴ +1 622.12 (+14.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −9 593 ₴

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

1 847.75 ₴

at 615.92

Steam

×4

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

5 170.90 ₴

at 1 292.72

Steam

×3

Nova | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

4 181.28 ₴

at 1 393.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 199.93 ₴ +1 743.15 (+15.6%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

24 627.71 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Fire Elemental

Factory New

5 279.39 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Fuel Injector

Factory New

24 387.07 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

5 060.03 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 061.64 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 596.60 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1729795 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 073.35₴ · invest 9 923.63₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 564 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076405 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005605 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1735268 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 038.29₴ · invest 10 656.38₴
profit on prices without salesat least −8 591 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076694 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005857 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1718129 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 036.89₴ · invest 10 165.73₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 970 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076497 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005685 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1739347 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 028.84₴ · invest 10 137.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 608 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075950 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005206 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1740888 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 010.18₴ · invest 10 056.36₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 627 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076623 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005795 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1741246 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 007.81₴ · invest 10 129.60₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 629 ₴ rare inputs

AWP | Duality (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076694 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005857 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1723240 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 980.88₴ · invest 10 117.18₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 879 ₴ rare inputs

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076561 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005741 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1725653 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 973.94₴ · invest 10 731.36₴
profit on prices without salesat least −8 193 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076795 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005946 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1717052 · The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 941.21₴ · invest 10 816.64₴
profit on prices without salesat least −8 282 ₴ rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075950 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005206 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1739770 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 928.87₴ · invest 10 423.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −8 358 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076795 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005946 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1742773 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 907.62₴ · invest 10 439.74₴
profit on prices without salesat least −7 729 ₴ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076485 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005675 instead of 0.005714
Craft 1721215 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 891.54₴ · invest 10 701.67₴
profit on prices without salesat least −8 078 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076674 instead of 0.076530; XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New): float at most 0.005840 instead of 0.005714

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build