The Vanguard Collection
+ The Winter Offensive Collection
StatTrak™
Classified → Covert
About the craftCraft 1743127 · ways to build: 4StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+18 269.37₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».45 903.70₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.64 173.07₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+39.8%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.50%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 113 850.88₽
· profit at most −49 677.80₽
(at most -43.6%) · chance of profit at most 45%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) × 213% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.214557.26 → 10071.54 ₽
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) × 713% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.5537105.18 → 94618.21 ₽
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear) × 113% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.164241.26 → 9161.12 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 45.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -34 578.17 ₽.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.float out of reachThere are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
продажа ненадёжнаmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
How to build
Ways to build
4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
13% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 13% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0807
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
4 557.26 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.080705f′ (normalized) 0.080705wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×7
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0093
(≈2% of this wear's listings)
37 105.18 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009367f′ (normalized) 0.009367wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0807
(0% of this wear's listings)
4 241.26 ₽
at 4 241.26
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.080705f′ (normalized) 0.080705wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 10 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 28) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs45 903.70 ₽
+18 269.37
(+39.8%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.205231, 0.012308«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −891 ₽
!
13% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 13% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0807
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
2 278.63 ₽
at 2 278.63
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.080705f′ (normalized) 0.080705wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 6 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 14) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×7
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0093
(≈2% of this wear's listings)
37 105.18 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009367f′ (normalized) 0.009367wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×2
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0807
(0% of this wear's listings)
8 482.52 ₽
at 4 241.26
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.080705f′ (normalized) 0.080705wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 10 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 28) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs47 866.33 ₽
+12 938.15
(+27.0%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.205231, 0.012308«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −8 725 ₽
!
13% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 13% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×7
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0093
(≈2% of this wear's listings)
37 105.18 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009367f′ (normalized) 0.009367wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0807
(0% of this wear's listings)
12 723.78 ₽
at 4 241.26
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.080705f′ (normalized) 0.080705wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 10 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 28) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs49 828.96 ₽
+7 606.93
(+15.3%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.205231, 0.012308«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −16 901 ₽
!
13% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 13% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×6
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0093
(≈2% of this wear's listings)
31 804.44 ₽
at 5 300.74
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009367f′ (normalized) 0.009367wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 2 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 4) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0807
(0% of this wear's listings)
12 723.78 ₽
at 4 241.26
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.080705f′ (normalized) 0.080705wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 10 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 28) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0093
(0% of this wear's listings)
7 604.31 ₽
at 7 604.31
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009367f′ (normalized) 0.009367wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 11 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0,
new ~0.0 per day · little data: 2.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 15 · from 20 632.47 ₽ (float 0.0051) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs52 132.53 ₽
+1 934.76
(+3.7%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.030769131result 0.070000, 0.018461, 0.205231, 0.012308«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
4 outcomes
Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
Factory New
119 835.71 ₽45.00%
sell on CSFloat
SteamStatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)net 117438.99you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 119 835.71 ₽listings 8 · you get 117 438.99 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 107 067.21 ₽
(you get 93 101.92)) · buy orders: 430Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 119 835.71 ₽listings: 8
on Lis-Skins: from 135 612.22 ₽listings: 9
at a loss
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental
Factory New
20 291.00 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)net 17644.35you get 0.018461
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 17 619.78 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 319.94 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 15 414.18 ₽listings: 13
on Lis-Skins: from 15 582.93 ₽listings: 13
sell now to a buy order: 48 699.34 ₽
(you get 42 347.25)) · buy orders: 780
sell on Market.CSGO: 39 373.17 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 43 172.34 · lots 11
on CSFloat: from 40 922.31 ₽listings: 38
on CS.Money: ~ 45 923.89 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 41 449.96 ₽listings: 55
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken
Factory New
12 336.41 ₽5.00%
price without deals
SteamStatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)net 10727.31you get 0.012308The Winter Offensive Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 9 712.52 ₽
(you get 8 445.66)) · buy orders: 205Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 23 784.69 ₽listings: 5
on Lis-Skins: from 10 590.77 ₽listings: 8
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+15 822.74 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+17 649.95 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The Winter Offensive Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Market check
at night · fresher — with «Check floats on Steam»
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
