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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3 617.27₸

Invest 9 659.90₸

Average return 13 277.17₸

ROI +37.5%

Chance of profit 55%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 23 041.56₸ · profit at most −9 764.44₸ (at most -42.4%) · chance of profit at most 26%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 5365.93 → 13468.49 ₸

G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 2981.07 → 6737.23 ₸

MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1312.90 → 2835.86 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −5 577 ₸

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+3 617.25 ₸ +37.4% chance of profit 55%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 33 169.88 ₸ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −5 577 ₸

6× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
3× G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
1× MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

+16 165.75 ₸ +81.8% chance of profit 76%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 82 596.95 ₸ · chance 6.0%

profit on prices without salesat least −17 962 ₸

7× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0225
3× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0835

Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+9 702.61 ₸ +74.1% chance of profit 38%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 82 596.95 ₸ · chance 18%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 232 ₸

1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
9× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0839

Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection

+4 362.78 ₸ +54.1% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 33 169.88 ₸ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 930 ₸

2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744

Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+4 096.21 ₸ +49.5% chance of profit 49%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 33 169.88 ₸ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 727 ₸

1× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
8× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× Tec-9 | Jambiya (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+3 729.16 ₸ +46.6% chance of profit 48%

expensive: M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) · 33 169.88 ₸ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −3 734 ₸

2× MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
7× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

5 365.93 ₸

at 894.32

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

2 981.07 ₸

at 993.69

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

1 312.90 ₸

at 1 312.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9 659.90 ₸ +3 617.27 (+37.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −7 279 ₸

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

5 365.93 ₸

at 894.32

Steam

×2

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

1 987.38 ₸

at 993.69

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

1 312.90 ₸

at 1 312.90

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0229

2 242.61 ₸

at 2 242.61

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 908.82 ₸ +2 816.09 (+25.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −8 982 ₸

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

5 365.93 ₸

at 894.32

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

993.69 ₸

at 993.69

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

1 312.90 ₸

at 1 312.90

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0229

4 485.22 ₸

at 2 242.61

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12 157.74 ₸ +2 014.91 (+16.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 447 ₸

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1620

457.18 ₸

at 457.18

Steam

×4

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

3 974.77 ₸

at 993.69

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1 312.90 ₸

at 1 312.90

Steam

×4

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

8 970.44 ₸

at 2 242.61

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14 715.28 ₸ +352.91 (+2.4%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

4 527.31 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

38 145.35 ₸ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

13 157.18 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

3 185.40 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

12 713.55 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Splash

Factory New

33 891.10 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

13 104.28 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +943.69 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 243.35 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build