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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Classified

Average profit +30.75$

Invest 61.72$

Average return 92.47$

ROI +49.8%

Chance of profit 52%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 155.41$ · profit at most −62.94$ (at most -40.5%) · chance of profit at most 22%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 6.50 → 14.04 $

StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 3.86 → 8.33 $

StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) × 8 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.59 51.37 → 133.04 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −49 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+30.75 $ +49.8% chance of profit 52%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Factory New) · 160.89 $ · chance 22%

profit on prices without salesat least −49 $

1× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0774
1× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1714
8× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0774

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+583.93 $ +82.6% chance of profit 90%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) · 1 625.76 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −155 $

1× StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0230
5× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749
4× StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New) buy 0.0600–0.0606

Variant 3 only The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+32.55 $ +52.8% chance of profit 50%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Factory New) · 160.89 $ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −47 $

1× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1810
9× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0808

Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+14.05 $ +18.8% chance of profit 60%

expensive: StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) · 111.22 $ · chance 6.7%

profit on prices without salesat least −75 $

2× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
2× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
6× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

Variant 5 only The Vanguard Collection

+7.94 $ +11.5% chance of profit 33%

expensive: StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) · 111.22 $ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −69 $

9× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0759
1× StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0237

Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

+5.78 $ +7.7% chance of profit 40%

expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 145.78 $ · chance 3.3%

profit on prices without salesat least −75 $

9× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
1× StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0774

6.50 $

at 6.50

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1714

3.86 $

at 3.86

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0774

51.37 $

at 6.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 61.72 $ +30.75 (+49.8%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 52%
Losing outcome 48%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger

Minimal Wear

48.44 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera

Factory New

185.03 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Factory New

134.25 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick

Minimal Wear

65.59 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel

Factory New

75.65 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

61.88 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

127.91 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +14.10 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +28.32 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1730930 · The Gallery Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 33.72$ · invest 57.51$
profit on prices without salesat least −42 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166788 instead of 0.171418; StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075839 instead of 0.077450
Craft 1743216 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 32.22$ · invest 61.74$
profit on prices without salesat least −49 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162703 instead of 0.171418; StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074418 instead of 0.077450
Craft 1728123 · The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 32.15$ · invest 57.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −44 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173659 instead of 0.171418; StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078229 instead of 0.077450
Craft 1732401 · The Gamma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 31.97$ · invest 58.20$
profit on prices without salesat least −45 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162346 instead of 0.171418; StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074294 instead of 0.077450
Craft 1721295 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 31.95$ · invest 57.63$
profit on prices without salesat least −45 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1739840 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 31.67$ · invest 57.53$
profit on prices without salesat least −44 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1741624 · The Revolver Case Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 31.09$ · invest 59.11$
profit on prices without salesat least −43 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1741330 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 30.53$ · invest 56.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −42 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162346 instead of 0.171418; StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074294 instead of 0.077450

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build