Crafts · The Dead Hand Collection
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The Dead Hand Collection

Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743387 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +10 222.84₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 18 873.10₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 29 095.94₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +54.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 50%
From the outcome +259.08 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +9 963.76 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 54 731.99₽ · profit at most −25 636.05₽ (at most -46.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) × 90 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 15072.30 → 43709.67 ₽
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) × 10 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 3800.80 → 11022.32 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+10 222.84 ₽ +54.2% chance of profit 50%
expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) · 20 245.97 ₽ · chance 50%
sells slowly
  • 9× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+1 050.06 ₽ +55.6% chance of profit 67%
expensive: AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) · 5 140.41 ₽ · chance 33%
sells slowly
  • 9× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+3 106.65 ₽ +47.2% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 50%
float out of reach
  • 8× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 2× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 4 Covert → нож или перчатки
+29 360.56 ₽ +27.7% chance of profit 64%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New) · 366 000.01 ₽ · chance 4.5%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 27% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 5× Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 100 pcs needed, and about 20 sell per day — buying will take 5 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×90
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0770
15 072.30 ₽
at 167.47
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details9 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.077088f′ (normalized) 0.077088wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 450 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 233) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×10
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0062
3 800.80 ₽
at 380.08
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details1 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.006202f′ (normalized) 0.006202wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 327 · good ≈ 6
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · among lots up to 632.61 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 8 of 175 · from 774.35 ₽ (float 0.0034) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New), P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 2 151.28 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 18 873.10 ₽ +10 222.84 (+54.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 all outcomes come out at 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
AK-47 | Crane Flight
Factory New
5 911.47 ₽ 33%
Steam AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)+2 989.13 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
craft on
P250 | Kintsugi
Factory New
1 976.03 ₽ 33%
Steam P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)fetches 1 718.29, no more than the replacement you get 0.0700
craft on
P90 | Deathgaze
Factory New
2 246.42 ₽ 33%
Steam P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)fetches 1 953.41, no more than the replacement you get 0.0700
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 50%
  • Losing outcome 0%
  • About break-even 50%
in profit
best
AWP | Queen's Gambit
Factory New
23 282.87 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New)net 20245.97 you get 0.070000
by lot · 1 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 21 862.49 ₽ (you get 19 010.86)) · buy orders: 494
about break-even
worst
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
Factory New
20 721.15 ₽ 50.00%
Steam Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)net 18018.39 you get 0.070000 sells 6 a week sell now to a buy order: 17 937.13 ₽ (you get 15 597.50)) · buy orders: 828 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 686.89 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 18 297.03 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 13 424.34 ₽ listings: 35 on CS.Money: ~ 15 232.58 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 13 956.28 ₽ listings: 41
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