Crafts · The Dead Hand Collection
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The Dead Hand Collection

Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743388 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +2 759.93₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 10 149.40₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 12 909.33₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +27.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -458.63 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +3 218.57 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 29 433.26₽ · profit at most −16 523.93₽ (at most -56.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested) × 80 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 6800.00 → 19720.00 ₽
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) × 20 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 3349.40 → 9713.26 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -458.63 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+2 759.93 ₽ +27.2% chance of profit 0%
expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 50%
profit only from resale
  • 8× Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 2× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+1 050.06 ₽ +55.6% chance of profit 67%
expensive: AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) · 5 140.41 ₽ · chance 33%
sells slowly
  • 9× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+3 106.65 ₽ +47.2% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 9 996.43 ₽ · chance 50%
float out of reach
  • 8× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 2× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 4 Covert → нож или перчатки
+29 360.56 ₽ +27.7% chance of profit 64%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New) · 366 000.01 ₽ · chance 4.5%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 27% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 5× Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of listings fit, and a rare float costs more than usual; you need 100 pcs. but about 84 sell per day — buying will take 2 days and the price will move meanwhile. The database holds the average item price, ignoring float — the real purchase will cost more.

×80
Galil AR | Galigator
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1683
6 800.00 ₽
at 85.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details8 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.168399f′ (normalized) 0.168399wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 456 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 101 · from 653.57 ₽ (float 0.1653) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×20
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0763
3 349.40 ₽
at 167.47
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details2 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.076399f′ (normalized) 0.076399wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 450 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 233) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear), P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 1 061.70 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 10 149.40 ₽ +2 759.93 (+27.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.149999900 all outcomes come out at 0.150000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
AK-47 | Crane Flight
Minimal Wear
2 331.36 ₽ 33%
Steam AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)+965.57 each above the replacement you get 0.1500
craft on
P250 | Kintsugi
Minimal Wear
1 030.12 ₽ 33%
Steam P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)fetches 895.76, no more than the replacement you get 0.1500
craft on
P90 | Deathgaze
Minimal Wear
1 059.67 ₽ 33%
Steam P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)fetches 921.45, no more than the replacement you get 0.1500
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 50%
  • About break-even 50%
about break-even
best
AWP | Queen's Gambit
Minimal Wear
11 495.90 ₽ 50.00%
Steam AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)net 9996.43 you get 0.150000 sells ≈71 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 10 502.37 ₽ (you get 9 132.49)) · buy orders: 1001
at a loss
worst
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
Minimal Wear
10 792.87 ₽ 50.00%
Steam Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)net 9385.10 you get 0.150000 sells ≈40 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 10 508.11 ₽ (you get 9 137.48)) · buy orders: 3022 sell on Market.CSGO: 7 934.40 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 8 700.00 · lots 21 on CSFloat: from 7 709.23 ₽ listings: 85 on CS.Money: ~ 8 778.24 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 7 983.34 ₽ listings: 96
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