Crafts · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection
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The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Covert About the craft Craft 1743398 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 072.92₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 4 313.52₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 5 386.44₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +24.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -1 158.38 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +2 231.30 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 12 509.20₴ · profit at most −7 122.76₴ (at most -56.9%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) × 200 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 809.05 → 2346.23 ₴
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested) × 800 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 3504.47 → 10162.97 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -1 158.38 ₴.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Covert
+1 072.92 ₴ +24.9% chance of profit 0%
expensive: StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) · 3 155.84 ₴ · chance 50%
profit only from resale
  • 2× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1629
  • 8× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1629
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+348.46 ₴ +75.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) · 843.89 ₴ · chance 33%
sells slowly
  • 9× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
  • 1× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+265.05 ₴ +8.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) · 3 728.41 ₴ · chance 50%
  • 8× StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 2× StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 1000 pcs needed, and about 66 sell per day — buying will take 16 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×200
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1629
809.05 ₴
at 4.05
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details2 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.162919f′ (normalized) 0.285823wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 1 019 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
×800
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1629
3 504.47 ₴
at 4.38
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details8 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.162919f′ (normalized) 0.162919wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 886 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
1000
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
100
100 contracts
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 34.27 ₴.

Craft on only from StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 298.89 ₴.

Set · 1000 pcs 4 313.52 ₴ +1 072.92 (+24.9%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.187499900 result 0.187500, 0.150000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat
Minimal Wear
42.33 ₴ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)+2.54 each above the replacement you get 0.1256
craft on
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade
Field-Tested
31.18 ₴ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)fetches 27.12, no more than the replacement you get 0.1875
sell
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror
Minimal Wear
96.77 ₴ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)+49.88 each above the replacement you get 0.1312
sell
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell
Minimal Wear
107.43 ₴ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)+59.15 each above the replacement you get 0.1425
craft on
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive
Minimal Wear
35.84 ₴ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)fetches 31.17, no more than the replacement you get 0.0937
2

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
craft on
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama
Field-Tested
297.43 ₴ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)fetches 258.63, no more than the replacement you get 0.1875
craft on
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
Field-Tested
303.98 ₴ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)fetches 264.33, no more than the replacement you get 0.1875
craft on
StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
Field-Tested
297.93 ₴ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)fetches 259.07, no more than the replacement you get 0.1875
3

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish
Field-Tested
3 627.59 ₴ 50.00%
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)net 3154.43 you get 0.187500 sells 128 a week sell now to a buy order: 3 055.49 ₴ (you get 2 656.94)) · buy orders: 1313 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 450.45 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 2 686.90 · lots 27 on CSFloat: from 2 346.10 ₴ listings: 69 on CS.Money: ~ 2 620.35 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 2 418.37 ₴ listings: 116
at a loss
best
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector
Minimal Wear
3 629.22 ₴ 50.00%
Steam StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)net 3155.84 you get 0.150000 sells 94 a week sell now to a buy order: 3 570.58 ₴ (you get 3 104.85)) · buy orders: 1844 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 899.16 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 3 178.91 · lots 26 on CSFloat: from 2 754.10 ₴ listings: 40 on CS.Money: ~ 3 033.73 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 2 815.15 ₴ listings: 70
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