Crafts · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743415 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +23 118.08₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 18 702.80₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 41 820.88₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +123.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 100%
From the outcome +6 186.95 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +16 931.13 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 54 238.12₽ · profit at most −12 417.24₽ (at most -22.9%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) × 20 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 3423.60 → 9928.44 ₽
StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) × 80 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 15279.20 → 44309.68 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −18 703 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −18 703 ₽: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New), StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New), StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New), StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+23 118.08 ₽ +123.6% chance of profit 100%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) · 28 910.80 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −18 703 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 10 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
  • 8× StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+921.04 ₽ +78.8% chance of profit 60%
expensive: StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) · 6 202.32 ₽ · chance 20%
profit on prices without salesat least −588 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 2 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
  • 8× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 3 Restricted → Classified
+2 264.87 ₽ +121.1% chance of profit 100%
expensive: StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) · 5 587.03 ₽ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 178 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 10 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
  • 8× StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1637
Variant 4 Classified → Covert
+9 665.90 ₽ +63.5% chance of profit 100%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) · 28 910.80 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −15 224 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0759
  • 1× StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0052

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 100 pcs needed, and about 10 sell per day — buying will take 10 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×20
StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1637
3 423.60 ₽
at 171.18
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details2 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.163747f′ (normalized) 0.163747wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 92 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 65) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×80
StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1637
15 279.20 ₽
at 190.99
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details8 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.163747f′ (normalized) 0.046563wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 59 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 6 130.90 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 96) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 2 624.03 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 18 702.80 ₽ +23 118.08 (+123.6%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 all outcomes come out at 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket
Factory New
5 451.42 ₽ 33%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)+2 116.34 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0700
craft on
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis
Factory New
2 389.77 ₽ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)fetches 2 078.06, no more than the replacement you get 0.0224
sell
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex
Factory New
6 425.09 ₽ 33%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)+2 963.00 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0700
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 100%
  • Losing outcome 0%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Factory New
33 247.42 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)net 28910.80 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 28 173.67 ₽ (you get 24 498.84)) · buy orders: 647 sell on Market.CSGO: 23 516.19 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 25 785.30 · lots 12 on CSFloat: from 21 757.16 ₽ listings: 48 on CS.Money: ~ 25 157.79 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 24 483.66 ₽ listings: 48
in profit
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast
Factory New
23 999.00 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)net 20868.70 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 21 718.10 ₽ (you get 18 885.30)) · buy orders: 930 sell on Market.CSGO: 22 737.09 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 24 931.02 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 17 590.75 ₽ listings: 25 on CS.Money: ~ 18 841.36 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 17 831.45 ₽ listings: 32
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