Crafts · The Mirage Collection
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The Mirage Collection

Consumer Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1743501 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +51 891.73₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 303 210.00₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 355 101.73₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +17.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -247 642.39 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +299 534.12 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 879 309.00₽ · profit at most −524 207.27₽ (at most -59.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) × 500 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 88665.00 → 257128.50 ₽
Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) × 500 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 214545.00 → 622180.50 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −227 929 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −227 929 ₽: Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New), MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New), MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New), MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New), MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New)
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -247 642.39 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Consumer → Restricted
+51 891.73 ₽ +17.1% chance of profit 0%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −227 929 ₽ profit only from resale Outcome alone -247642, selling intermediates +299534. Sale money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 5× Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
  • 5× Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
Variant 2 Consumer → Industrial
+802.28 ₽ +26.5% chance of profit 40%
expensive: Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) · 8 381.23 ₽ · chance 20%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 988 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 5× Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0748
  • 5× Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0042
Variant 3 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+33 769.29 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) · 55 567.61 ₽ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −21 798 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
  • 9× MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 1000 pcs needed, and about 1 sell per day — buying will take 1000 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×500
Souvenir P250 | Bone Mask
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0748
88 665.00 ₽
at 177.33
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details5 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.074809f′ (normalized) 0.020012wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 83 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 1 554.43 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 29) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×500
Souvenir Galil AR | Hunting Blind
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0042
214 545.00 ₽
at 429.09
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details5 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.004208f′ (normalized) 0.007013wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 115 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 1 488.25 ₽ · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 39) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
1000
buy
Consumer Grade
100
100 contracts
Industrial Grade
10
10 contracts
Mil-Spec Grade
1
1 contract
Restricted

Craft on only from Negev | CaliCamo (Factory New), SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 1 457.01 ₽.

Craft on only from UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 1 850.00 ₽.

Set · 1000 pcs 303 210.00 ₽ +51 891.73 (+17.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 1 outcome How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
sell
Glock-18 | Groundwater
Factory New
9 638.42 ₽ 20%
price without deals
Steam Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)+6 924.22 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0700
sell
MP7 | Orange Peel
Factory New
3 447.02 ₽ 20%
price without deals
Steam MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New)+1 540.40 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0700
craft on
Negev | CaliCamo
Factory New
1 457.01 ₽ 20%
Steam Negev | CaliCamo (Factory New)fetches 1 266.97, no more than the replacement you get 0.0081
craft on
SG 553 | Gator Mesh
Factory New
1 501.00 ₽ 20%
Steam SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)fetches 1 305.22, no more than the replacement you get 0.0081
sell
SSG 08 | Tropical Storm
Factory New
6 004.21 ₽ 20%
Steam SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Factory New)+3 764.04 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
2

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
MAC-10 | Amber Fade
Factory New
2 216.48 ₽ 33%
price without deals
Steam MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New)+77.37 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0054
sell
MP9 | Hot Rod
Factory New
21 000.00 ₽ 33%
price without deals
Steam MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)+16 410.87 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0011
craft on
UMP-45 | Blaze
Factory New
1 850.00 ₽ 33%
Steam UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)fetches 1 608.70, no more than the replacement you get 0.0011
3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
best
MAG-7 | Bulldozer
Factory New
63 902.75 ₽ 100.00%
price without deals
Steam MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)net 55567.61 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 17 403.55 ₽ (you get 15 133.52)) · buy orders: 202 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 942.84 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 867.16 · lots 4 CSFloat: price does not match Steam — not shown CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: price does not match Steam — not shown
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