Crafts · The Recoil Collection
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The Recoil Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Covert About the craft Craft 1743551 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +6 725.93₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 16 790.00₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 23 515.93₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +40.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 50%
From the outcome -3 250.87 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +9 976.80 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 48 691.00₽ · profit at most −25 175.07₽ (at most -51.7%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) × 1000 15% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 16790.00 → 48691.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -3 250.87 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Covert
+6 725.93 ₽ +40.1% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 22 468.92 ₽ · chance 50%
profit only from resale sells slowly 50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 10× StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0823
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+683.27 ₽ +48.6% chance of profit 67%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) · 2 984.23 ₽ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −41 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646
  • 6× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+4 874.09 ₽ +56.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 22 468.92 ₽ · chance 50%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 8× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

15% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 15% of listings fit, and a rare float costs more than usual; you need 1000 pcs. but about 16 sell per day — buying will take 63 days and the price will move meanwhile. The database holds the average item price, ignoring float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1000
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0823
16 790.00 ₽
at 16.79
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details10 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.082352f′ (normalized) 0.082352wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 671 · good ≈ 13
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 63) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
1000
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
100
100 contracts
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear), StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New), StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 172.00 ₽.

Craft on only from StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 902.11 ₽.

Set · 1000 pcs 16 790.00 ₽ +6 725.93 (+40.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.082352841 result 0.057647, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
craft on
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora
Minimal Wear
178.19 ₽ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)fetches 154.95, no more than the replacement you get 0.0824
craft on
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown
Factory New
185.76 ₽ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)fetches 161.53, no more than the replacement you get 0.0535
sell
StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush
Factory New
254.27 ₽ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)+49.10 each above the replacement you get 0.0576
craft on
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8
Minimal Wear
137.81 ₽ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)fetches 119.83, no more than the replacement you get 0.0824
sell
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech
Factory New
275.38 ₽ 20%
Steam StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)+67.46 each above the replacement you get 0.0576
2

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled
Factory New
3 431.86 ₽ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)+2 082.12 each above the replacement you get 0.0634
sell
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
1 280.69 ₽ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)+211.53 each above the replacement you get 0.0576
craft on
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
894.07 ₽ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)fetches 777.45, no more than the replacement you get 0.0824
3

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 50%
  • Losing outcome 50%
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Factory New
5 300.74 ₽ 50.00%
Steam StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)net 4609.34 you get 0.057647 sells 32 a week sell now to a buy order: 4 604.29 ₽ (you get 4 003.73)) · buy orders: 1352 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 648.00 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 4 000.00 · lots 18 on CSFloat: from 3 583.08 ₽ listings: 80 on CS.Money: ~ 3 677.30 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 3 731.27 ₽ listings: 69
in profit
best
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream
Factory New
25 839.26 ₽ 50.00%
Steam StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)net 22468.92 you get 0.070000 sells 2 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 23 356.31 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 25 609.99 · lots 8 on CSFloat: from 19 740.77 ₽ listings: 64 on CS.Money: ~ 21 742.60 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 526.74 ₽ listings: 50
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