Crafts · The Recoil Collection
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The Recoil Collection

Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743553 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +474.62₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 2 230.12₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 704.74₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +21.3%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 50%
From the outcome -98.55 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +573.18 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 6 467.34₴ · profit at most −3 762.60₴ (at most -58.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) × 20 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 412.91 → 1197.43 ₴
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) × 80 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 1817.21 → 5269.91 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -98.55 ₴.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+474.62 ₴ +21.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) · 2 537.13 ₴ · chance 50%
profit only from resale
  • 2× SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
  • 8× R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
Variant 2 Classified → Covert
+703.80 ₴ +24.0% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 4 039.89 ₴ · chance 50%
  • 2× P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 8× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
Variant 3 Covert → нож или перчатки
+21 308.66 ₴ +106.3% chance of profit 71%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) · 118 771.85 ₴ · chance 4.2%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 58% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 5× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0094

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×20
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1625
412.91 ₴
at 20.65
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details2 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.162538f′ (normalized) 0.232198wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 1 358 · good ≈ 2
Market history: no data yet
×80
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1625
1 817.21 ₴
at 22.72
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details8 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.162538f′ (normalized) 0.162538wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 1 103 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 187.38 ₴.

Set · 100 pcs 2 230.12 ₴ +474.62 (+21.3%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.176470488 result 0.123529, 0.150000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
AK-47 | Ice Coaled
Minimal Wear
387.15 ₴ 33%
Steam AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)+149.28 each above the replacement you get 0.1359
sell
P250 | Visions
Minimal Wear
241.57 ₴ 33%
Steam P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)+22.68 each above the replacement you get 0.1235
craft on
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Field-Tested
187.38 ₴ 33%
Steam Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)fetches 162.94, no more than the replacement you get 0.1765
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 50%
  • Losing outcome 50%
at a loss
worst
AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Minimal Wear
1 984.90 ₴ 50.00%
Steam AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)net 1726.00 you get 0.123529 sells 140 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 976.69 ₴ (you get 1 718.86)) · buy orders: 3940 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 523.18 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 1 670.15 · lots 64 on CSFloat: from 1 535.05 ₴ listings: 262 on CS.Money: ~ 1 463.68 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 1 578.58 ₴ listings: 338
in profit
best
USP-S | Printstream
Minimal Wear
2 917.70 ₴ 50.00%
Steam USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)net 2537.13 you get 0.150000 sells 133 a week sell now to a buy order: 3 257.92 ₴ (you get 2 832.97)) · buy orders: 2282 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 437.20 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 2 672.37 · lots 215 on CSFloat: from 2 333.98 ₴ listings: 720 on CS.Money: ~ 2 627.08 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 2 499.16 ₴ listings: 484
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