Crafts · The Recoil Collection
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≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 0.0117 $. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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The Recoil Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743555 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +98.62$
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 148.70$
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 247.32$
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +66.3%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 50%
From the outcome +9.36 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +89.26 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 431.23$ · profit at most −183.91$ (at most -42.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) × 70 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 83.64 → 242.56 $
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) × 30 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 65.06 → 188.67 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+98.62 $ +66.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 262.31 $ · chance 50%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 7× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0747
  • 3× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0041
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+7.98 $ +48.6% chance of profit 67%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) · 34.84 $ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −0 $ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646
  • 6× StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+56.90 $ +56.3% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) · 262.31 $ · chance 50%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 8× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of listings fit, and a rare float costs more than usual; you need 100 pcs. but about 3 sell per day — buying will take 34 days and the price will move meanwhile. The database holds the average item price, ignoring float — the real purchase will cost more.

×70
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0747
83.64 $
at 1.19
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details7 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.074705f′ (normalized) 0.114932wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 155 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 64) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×30
StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0041
65.06 $
at 2.17
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details3 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.004117f′ (normalized) 0.006334wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 75 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~3, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 29.27 $ · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 64) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 10.53 $.

Set · 100 pcs 148.70 $ +98.62 (+66.3%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.082352841 result 0.057647, 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled
Factory New
40.06 $ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)+24.31 each above the replacement you get 0.0634
sell
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions
Factory New
14.95 $ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)+2.47 each above the replacement you get 0.0576
craft on
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love
Minimal Wear
10.44 $ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)fetches 9.08, no more than the replacement you get 0.0824
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 50%
  • Losing outcome 50%
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Factory New
61.88 $ 50.00%
Steam StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)net 53.81 you get 0.057647 sells 32 a week sell now to a buy order: 53.75 $ (you get 46.74)) · buy orders: 1352 sell on Market.CSGO: 42.59 $ to your card cheapest lot 46.70 · lots 18 on CSFloat: from 41.83 $ listings: 80 on CS.Money: ~ 42.93 $ on Lis-Skins: from 43.56 $ listings: 69
in profit
best
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream
Factory New
301.66 $ 50.00%
Steam StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)net 262.31 you get 0.070000 sells 2 a week no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 272.67 $ to your card cheapest lot 298.98 · lots 8 on CSFloat: from 230.46 $ listings: 64 on CS.Money: ~ 253.83 $ on Lis-Skins: from 251.31 $ listings: 50
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