Crafts · The Train 2025 Collection
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The Train 2025 Collection

Industrial Grade → Classified About the craft Craft 1743629 · ways to build: 1 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +8 073.09₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 10 725.00₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 18 798.09₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +75.3%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -2 987.23 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +11 060.32 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 31 102.50₽ · profit at most −12 304.41₽ (at most -39.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
AUG | Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear) × 900 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 9261.00 → 26856.90 ₽
P250 | Constructivist (Factory New) × 100 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 1464.00 → 4245.60 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -2 987.23 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Industrial → Classified
+8 073.09 ₽ +75.3% chance of profit 0%
expensive: M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New) · 10 260.87 ₽ · chance 50%
profit only from resale sells slowly 100% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.
  • 9× AUG | Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0760
  • 1× P250 | Constructivist (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0053
Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+3 996.74 ₽ +176.6% chance of profit 33%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 714 ₽
  • 10× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0079
Variant 3 Restricted → Classified
+683.34 ₽ +35.1% chance of profit 100%
expensive: M4A4 | Hellish (Minimal Wear) · 2 681.68 ₽ · chance 50%
  • 7× Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1659
  • 3× Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1659
Variant 4 Classified → Covert
+9 744.08 ₽ +29.8% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AWP | LongDog (Factory New) · 42 460.45 ₽ · chance 100%
profit on prices without salesat least −32 716 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 1000 pcs needed, and about 54 sell per day — buying will take 19 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×900
AUG | Steel Sentinel
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0760
9 261.00 ₽
at 10.29
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details9 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.076086f′ (normalized) 0.076086wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 5 563 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×100
P250 | Constructivist
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0053
1 464.00 ₽
at 14.64
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details1 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.005326f′ (normalized) 0.015217wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 6 262 · good ≈ 114
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 17.55 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
1000
buy
Industrial Grade
100
100 contracts
Mil-Spec Grade
10
10 contracts
Restricted
1
1 contract
Classified

Craft on only from XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 226.26 ₽.

Craft on only from MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 725.39 ₽.

Set · 1000 pcs 10 725.00 ₽ +8 073.09 (+75.3%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 all outcomes come out at 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
sell
FAMAS | 2A2F
Factory New
300.47 ₽ 25%
Steam FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)+35.02 each above the replacement you get 0.0602
sell
Glock-18 | Green Line
Factory New
598.04 ₽ 25%
Steam Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)+293.77 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
sell
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
Factory New
266.00 ₽ 25%
Steam UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)+5.04 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
craft on
XM1014 | Run Run Run
Factory New
218.48 ₽ 25%
Steam XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)fetches 189.98, no more than the replacement you get 0.0523
2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
craft on
MAC-10 | Derailment
Factory New
725.39 ₽ 33%
Steam MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)fetches 630.77, no more than the replacement you get 0.0490
sell
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
Factory New
1 168.47 ₽ 33%
Steam Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)+290.67 each above the replacement you get 0.0700
sell
Tec-9 | Whiteout
Minimal Wear
1 436.39 ₽ 33%
Steam Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)+523.64 each above the replacement you get 0.1258
3

Restricted → Classified

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 50%
  • About break-even 50%
about break-even
best
M4A4 | Hellish
Factory New
11 800.00 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)net 10260.87 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 102.89 ₽ (you get 9 654.68)) · buy orders: 1503
at a loss
worst
MP9 | Latte Rush
Factory New
5 996.86 ₽ 50.00%
Steam MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)net 5214.66 you get 0.070000 sells 6 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 103.45 ₽ (you get 4 437.78)) · buy orders: 1542
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