Crafts · The Vanguard Collection
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The Vanguard Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Covert About the craft Craft 1743637 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +33 681.43₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 173 517.00₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 207 198.43₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +19.4%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 0%
From the outcome -105 975.33 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +139 656.76 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 503 199.30₽ · profit at most −296 000.87₽ (at most -58.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) × 100 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 13920.00 → 40368.00 ₽
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) × 900 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 159597.00 → 462831.30 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −39 007 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −39 007 ₽: StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New), StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New), StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New), StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New), StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New)
profit only from resale — without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative: -105 975.33 ₽.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 50.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -25 038.06 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Mil-Spec → Covert
+33 681.43 ₽ +19.4% chance of profit 0%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 117 438.99 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −39 007 ₽ profit only from resale Outcome alone -105975, selling intermediates +139657. Sale money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away. marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
  • 9× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+490.42 ₽ +30.2% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) · 3 931.63 ₽ · chance 25%
profit on prices without salesat least −446 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 2 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 2× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1695
  • 8× StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
Variant 3 Restricted → Classified
+680.01 ₽ +11.5% chance of profit 33%
expensive: StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) · 9 527.31 ₽ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −5 910 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0759
  • 1× StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0237
Variant 4 Classified → Covert
+23 600.60 ₽ +53.7% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) · 117 438.99 ₽ · chance 50%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 3× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0807
  • 7× StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0093

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of listings fit, and a rare float costs more than usual; you need 1000 pcs. but about 3 sell per day — buying will take 334 days and the price will move meanwhile. The database holds the average item price, ignoring float — the real purchase will cost more.

×100
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0746
13 920.00 ₽
at 139.20
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details1 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.074618f′ (normalized) 0.162213wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 27 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 64) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×900
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
159 597.00 ₽
at 177.33
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details9 per contract, for each of the 100 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.004041f′ (normalized) 0.016164wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 40 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 49) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
1000
buy
Mil-Spec Grade
100
100 contracts
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 900.00 ₽.

Craft on only from StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 5 300.74 ₽.

Set · 1000 pcs 173 517.00 ₽ +33 681.43 (+19.4%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.030769131 result 0.070000, 0.018461 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

100 contracts of 10 · 100 items drop
craft on
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder
Factory New
900.00 ₽ 25%
Steam StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)fetches 782.61, no more than the replacement you get 0.0271
sell
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin
Factory New
3 079.01 ₽ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)+1 777.40 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0246
sell
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk
Factory New
4 521.38 ₽ 25%
Steam StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)+3 031.63 each above the replacement you get 0.0209
sell
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Factory New
1 229.52 ₽ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)+169.15 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0308
2

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel
Factory New
6 480.05 ₽ 33%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New)+334.09 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0231
craft on
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac
Factory New
5 300.74 ₽ 33%
Steam StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)fetches 4 609.34, no more than the replacement you get 0.0308
sell
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility
Factory New
10 956.41 ₽ 33%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)+4 226.57 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0154
3

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 0%
  • Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
Factory New
119 835.71 ₽ 50.00%
sell on CSFloat
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)net 117438.99 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 119 835.71 ₽ listings 8 · you get 117 438.99 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 107 067.21 ₽ (you get 93 101.92)) · buy orders: 430 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 119 835.71 ₽ listings: 8 on Lis-Skins: from 135 612.22 ₽ listings: 9
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental
Factory New
20 291.00 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)net 17644.35 you get 0.018461
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 17 619.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 19 319.94 · lots 4 on CSFloat: from 15 414.18 ₽ listings: 13 on Lis-Skins: from 15 582.93 ₽ listings: 13
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