Crafts · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection
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The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Covert About the craft Craft 1743650 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +27 301.27₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 46 218.80₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 73 520.07₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +59.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 50%
From the outcome +14 143.71 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +13 157.56 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 134 034.52₽ · profit at most −60 514.45₽ (at most -45.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) × 40 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 13218.80 → 38334.52 ₽
StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) × 60 7% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 33000.00 → 95700.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 496 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 496 ₽: StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New), StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear), StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 50.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -11 313.41 ₽.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Covert
+27 301.27 ₽ +59.1% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 77 229.36 ₽ · chance 50%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 496 ₽ marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 4× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1660
  • 6× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0755
Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted
+8 155.91 ₽ +201.1% chance of profit 40%
expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 49 848.43 ₽ · chance 20%
profit on prices without salesat least −3 590 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 10× StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0856
Variant 3 Restricted → Classified
+2 788.40 ₽ +52.8% chance of profit 50%
expensive: StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Factory New) · 13 781.70 ₽ · chance 25%
profit on prices without salesat least −4 059 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1810
  • 9× StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0808
Variant 4 Classified → Covert
+36 678.30 ₽ +154.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 77 229.36 ₽ · chance 50%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 50% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641
  • 9× StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0749

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 7% of listings fit, and a rare float costs more than usual; you need 100 pcs. but about 3 sell per day — buying will take 34 days and the price will move meanwhile. The database holds the average item price, ignoring float — the real purchase will cost more.

×40
StatTrak™ P90 | Virus
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1660
13 218.80 ₽
at 330.47
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details4 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.166099f′ (normalized) 0.143378wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 43 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new per day — can't tell yet · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 31 · from 780.35 ₽ (float 0.1638) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×60
StatTrak™ P90 | Virus
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0755
33 000.00 ₽
at 550.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details6 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.075599f′ (normalized) 0.021081wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 1.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 21) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert

Craft on only from StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 2 442.69 ₽.

Set · 100 pcs 46 218.80 ₽ +27 301.27 (+59.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.069999900 result 0.070000, 0.050800 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 2 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Restricted → Classified

10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger
Minimal Wear
4 149.13 ₽ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)+1 165.25 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.1118
sell
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera
Minimal Wear
4 711.93 ₽ 25%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)+1 654.64 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0768
craft on
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera
Minimal Wear
2 442.69 ₽ 25%
Steam StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear)fetches 2 124.08, no more than the replacement you get 0.0768
sell
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick
Minimal Wear
5 618.70 ₽ 25%
Steam StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)+2 443.14 each above the replacement you get 0.1118
2

Classified → Covert

1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 50%
  • Losing outcome 50%
in profit
best
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar
Factory New
78 805.47 ₽ 50.00%
sell on CSFloat
Steam StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)net 77229.36 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 78 805.47 ₽ listings 10 · you get 77 229.36 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 64 994.61 ₽ (you get 56 517.05)) · buy orders: 541 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 78 805.47 ₽ listings: 10 on Lis-Skins: from 86 954.13 ₽ listings: 11
at a loss
worst
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain
Factory New
50 020.00 ₽ 50.00%
price without deals
Steam StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)net 43495.65 you get 0.050800
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 26 921.95 ₽ (you get 23 410.39)) · buy orders: 585 sell on Market.CSGO: 25 470.54 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 27 928.23 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 21 841.96 ₽ listings: 16 on CS.Money: ~ 23 445.48 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 23 462.62 ₽ listings: 30
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