The Recoil Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +1 533.44₽

Invest 34 725.97₽

Average return 36 259.41₽

ROI +4.4%

Chance of profit 33%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 78 114.28₽ · profit at most −41 854.86₽ (at most -53.6%) · chance of profit at most 16%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) × 4 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 15152.12 → 35834.76 ₽

P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 19573.85 → 42279.52 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −25 166 ₽

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 2. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 3.1% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -2 795.96 ₽.

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Recoil Collection + The Breakout Collection

+1 533.44 ₽ +4.4% chance of profit 33%

expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) · 173 823.98 ₽ · chance 1.5%

profit on prices without salesat least −25 166 ₽

4× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0750
1× P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+136 331.94 ₽ +94.7% chance of profit 32%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+129 596.52 ₽ +82.6% chance of profit 30%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

+68 100.34 ₽ +32.1% chance of profit 21%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0124
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0124

Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+61 364.92 ₽ +27.3% chance of profit 18%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112

Variant 6 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

−215.45 ₽ −0.2% chance of profit 46%

expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 318 990.83 ₽ · chance 6.2%

at a loss, a chance at an expensive one outcome without sales

4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
1× USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

15 152.12 ₽

at 3 788.03

Steam

×1

P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1646

19 573.85 ₽

at 19 573.85

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 34 725.97 ₽ +1 533.44 (+4.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 33%
Losing outcome 63%
About break-even 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Minimal Wear

9 085.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Minimal Wear

18 279.82 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Minimal Wear

8 691.31 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Minimal Wear

11 137.01 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Minimal Wear

21 399.85 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Minimal Wear

17 654.52 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Minimal Wear

8 924.53 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Minimal Wear

20 632.15 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Minimal Wear

67 656.49 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Minimal Wear

11 439.20 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Minimal Wear

13 992.15 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Minimal Wear

28 821.82 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Minimal Wear

29 092.27 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Minimal Wear

47 399.98 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Minimal Wear

20 132.36 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Minimal Wear

39 000.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Minimal Wear

35 808.90 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Minimal Wear

23 150.74 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Minimal Wear

91 534.34 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Minimal Wear

92 518.57 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Minimal Wear

6 000.80 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Minimal Wear

13 876.79 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Minimal Wear

8 000.44 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Minimal Wear

8 661.37 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

177 371.41 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

109 782.87 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

104 240.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

83 842.21 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

110 824.71 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

53 129.26 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

60 670.75 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

137 919.80 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

83 745.80 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

63 139.49 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

46 517.23 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

69 265.45 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

158 877.80 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -2 699.03 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +676.96 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1743905 · The Breakout Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 1 533.44₽ · invest 34 725.97₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 166 ₽ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Recoil Collection + The Breakout Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build