Knives and gloves · The Wildfire Collection
$≈
₽ RUB ₴ UAH ₸ KZT $ USD

≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 0.0117 $. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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to all knife crafts

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1743926 · ways to build: 4 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −6.19$
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 072.83$
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 1 066.63$
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −0.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 49%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 514.12$ · profit at most −1 447.49$ (at most -57.6%) · chance of profit at most 6%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 112.73 → 243.51 $
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) × 4 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 960.09 → 2270.61 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 5 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 12.3% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 12. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 64.6% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -871.36 $.

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection
−6.19 $ −0.6% chance of profit 49%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 3 724.00 $ · chance 6.2%
outcome without sales no outcome price Outcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understated marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
  • 4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
+1 512.95 $ +82.6% chance of profit 30%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 28 714.00 $ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 26% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
  • 4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection
+1 425.17 $ +83.6% chance of profit 30%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 28 714.00 $ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 34% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
  • 4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
+716.39 $ +27.3% chance of profit 18%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 28 714.00 $ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 26% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
  • 4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection
+628.61 $ +25.1% chance of profit 20%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 28 714.00 $ · chance 3.3%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 34% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0121
  • 4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0121
Variant 6 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection
−2.52 $ −0.2% chance of profit 46%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 3 724.00 $ · chance 6.2%
at a loss, a chance at an expensive one outcome without sales no outcome price Outcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understated marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 6 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
  • 1× USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

How to build Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)
×1
M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0070
112.73 $
at 112.73
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007065f′ (normalized) 0.011040wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 32 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · little data: 3.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 210 · from 127.29 $ (float 0.0069) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×4
M4A1-S | Cyrex
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0070
960.09 $
at 240.02
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007065f′ (normalized) 0.014131wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 121 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 444.92 $
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 146 · from 607.03 $ (float 0.0006) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 5 pcs 1 072.83 $ -6.19 (-0.6%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 37%
  • Losing outcome 38%
  • About break-even 12%
  • Above the Steam cap 12%
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade
Factory New
2 070.69 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 2029.28 you get 0.001081The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 070.69 $ listings 278 · you get 2 029.28 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 2 083.64 $ (you get 1 811.86)) · buy orders: 3645 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 097.22 $ to your card cheapest lot 2 299.58 · lots 25 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 2 070.69 $ listings: 278 on CS.Money: ~ 2 316.21 $ on Lis-Skins: from 2 100.96 $ listings: 193
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
1 281.64 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 1256.01 you get 0.013378The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 281.64 $ listings 157 · you get 1 256.01 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 818.94 $ (you get 1 581.68)) · buy orders: 1363 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 437.34 $ to your card cheapest lot 1 576.03 · lots 13 on CSFloat: from 1 281.64 $ listings: 157 on CS.Money: ~ 1 597.97 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 395.64 $ listings: 55
about break-even
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
1 104.20 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 1082.12 you get 0.013513The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 104.20 $ listings 10 · you get 1 082.12 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 172.36 $ (you get 1 019.44)) · buy orders: 505 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 222.08 $ to your card cheapest lot 1 340.01 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 1 104.20 $ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 1 205.58 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 194.16 $ listings: 13
about break-even
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained
Factory New
1 285.09 $ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 1117.47 you get 0.013513The Breakout Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 1 054.84 $ (you get 917.26)) · buy orders: 361 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 875.20 $ listings: 6 on CS.Money: ~ 906.33 $ on Lis-Skins: from 862.94 $ listings: 21
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
1 293.67 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 1267.80 you get 0.013513The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 293.67 $ listings 24 · you get 1 267.80 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 648.54 $ (you get 1 433.51)) · buy orders: 414 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 1 293.67 $ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 1 370.49 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 397.01 $ listings: 21
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
700.17 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 686.17 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 700.17 $ listings 5 · you get 686.17 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 689.71 $ (you get 599.75)) · buy orders: 128 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 700.17 $ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 722.43 $ listings: 5
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
844.00 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 827.12 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 844.00 $ listings 3 · you get 827.12 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 897.04 $ (you get 780.03)) · buy orders: 135 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 844.00 $ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 825.88 $ on Lis-Skins: from 852.06 $ listings: 9
in profit
best
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
3 800.00 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 3724.00 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 3 800.00 $ listings 3 · you get 3 724.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $ (you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 177 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 3 800.00 $ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 4 436.00 $ on Lis-Skins: from 4 449.60 $ listings: 7
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Night
Factory New
1 273.75 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)net 1248.27 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 273.75 $ listings 6 · you get 1 248.27 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 196.02 $ (you get 1 040.01)) · buy orders: 154 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 1 273.75 $ listings: 6 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched
Factory New
850.00 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 833.00 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 850.00 $ listings 7 · you get 833.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 850.00 $ listings: 7 on Lis-Skins: from 863.59 $ listings: 3
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection sell now to a buy order: 661.55 $ (you get 575.26)) · buy orders: 126 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on Lis-Skins: from 726.93 $ listings: 9
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
998.00 $ 6.15%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)net 978.04 you get 0.070000The Breakout Collection no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 998.00 $ listings 11 · you get 978.04 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 765.41 $ (you get 665.57)) · buy orders: 146 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 998.00 $ listings: 11 on Lis-Skins: from 1 016.86 $ listings: 4
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife
no wear
1 854.79 $ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knifenet 1612.86The Breakout Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 1 484.36 $ (you get 1 290.75)) · buy orders: 3422 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 264.08 $ to your card cheapest lot 1 386.05 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 1 124.58 $ listings: 105 on CS.Money: ~ 1 316.07 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 166.72 $ listings: 107
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Fade
Factory New
260.28 $ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 226.33 you get 0.001081 sells ≈7 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 226.24 $ (you get 196.73)) · buy orders: 915 sell on Market.CSGO: 192.70 $ to your card cheapest lot 211.29 · lots 29 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 174.98 $ listings: 78 on CS.Money: ~ 186.65 $ on Lis-Skins: from 191.23 $ listings: 76
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
258.76 $ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 225.01 you get 0.013378
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 242.48 $ (you get 210.85)) · buy orders: 377 sell on Market.CSGO: 199.91 $ to your card cheapest lot 219.20 · lots 26 on CSFloat: from 188.88 $ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 204.61 $ on Lis-Skins: from 195.77 $ listings: 51
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
341.28 $ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 296.77 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 280.27 $ (you get 243.71)) · buy orders: 197 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Stained
Factory New
144.44 $ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 141.55 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 144.44 $ listings 4 · you get 141.55 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 144.44 $ listings: 4 on CS.Money: ~ 143.54 $
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
1 112.67 $ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 967.54 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 255.32 $ (you get 222.02)) · buy orders: 155 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 440.00 $ listings: 7 CS.Money: price does not match Steam — not shown Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) you get 0.070000 no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 110.29 $ listings: 3
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
212.41 $ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 184.71 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 150.43 $ (you get 130.81)) · buy orders: 99 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) you get 0.070000 no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Night
Factory New
375.00 $ 1.54%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Night (Factory New)net 367.50 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 375.00 $ listings 4 · you get 367.50 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 129.83 $ (you get 112.90)) · buy orders: 110 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 375.00 $ listings: 4 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Factory New
198.45 $ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 172.57 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 88.29 $ (you get 76.78)) · buy orders: 65 not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 140.66 $ (you get 122.31)) · buy orders: 47 not listed on Market.CSGO right now
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 152.81 $ (you get 132.87)) · buy orders: 33 not listed on Market.CSGO right now
at a loss
worst
★ Bowie Knife
no wear
115.86 $ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Bowie Knifenet 100.75 sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 92.70 $ (you get 80.61)) · buy orders: 1165 sell on Market.CSGO: 78.45 $ to your card cheapest lot 86.02 · lots 11 on CSFloat: from 79.90 $ listings: 23 on CS.Money: ~ 85.75 $ on Lis-Skins: from 75.65 $ listings: 64
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