The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −3 111.06₴

Invest 17 366.45₴

Average return 14 255.39₴

ROI −17.9%

Chance of profit 14%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 40 034.34₴ · profit at most −25 778.95₴ (at most -64.4%) · chance of profit at most 8%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) × 4 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 12306.42 → 29104.67 ₴

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 5060.03 → 10929.67 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

The gain is understated. 6 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 18.5% of the probability.

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 3. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 9.2% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -3 893.48 ₴.

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection

−3 111.06 ₴ −17.9% chance of profit 14%

expensive: ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 70 259.06 ₴ · chance 6.2%

no outcome price

4× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+67 199.49 ₴ +90.2% chance of profit 30%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection

+63 967.83 ₴ +83.6% chance of profit 30%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0070

Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

+31 446.55 ₴ +28.5% chance of profit 20%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0112

Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The CS20 Collection

+28 214.89 ₴ +25.1% chance of profit 20%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 1 288 808.67 ₴ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0121
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0121

Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

−152.28 ₴ −0.9% chance of profit 21%

expensive: ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 206 267.89 ₴ · chance 0.3%

at a loss, a chance at an expensive one no outcome price

4× FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069
1× P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0069

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

12 306.42 ₴

at 3 076.60

Steam

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

5 060.03 ₴

at 5 060.03

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 17 366.45 ₴ -3 111.06 (-17.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 14%
Losing outcome 68%
Above the Steam cap 18%

Order

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

15 679.30 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

10 242.97 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

15 318.16 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

12 927.92 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

16 592.28 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

7 145.14 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

15 754.77 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

80 797.92 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

29 035.73 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

16 317.21 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

11 060.27 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

11 682.60 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

11 614.29 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

15 318.16 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

6 483.09 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

49 941.47 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

9 533.96 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

16 831.62 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

8 907.37 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

5 200.32 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -4 095.24 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week -3 368.76 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1744008 · The Wildfire Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit -3 111.06₴ · invest 17 366.45₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 1743934 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit -3 314.94₴ · invest 20 045.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.006609 instead of 0.007065
Craft 1743935 · The CS20 Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit -3 314.94₴ · invest 20 045.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.006609 instead of 0.007065
Craft 1744002 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit -3 335.22₴ · invest 19 488.93₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007065
Craft 1744003 · The CS20 Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit -3 335.22₴ · invest 19 488.93₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007065

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build