The Operation Broken Fang Collection
+ The Clutch Collection
Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5About the craftCraft 1744260 · ways to build: 3A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+360.91$
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».606.25$
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.967.16$
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+59.5%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.57%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 1 382.10$
· profit at most −414.94$
(at most -30.0%) · chance of profit at most 17%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) × 113% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16252.10 → 544.54 $
MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) × 413% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.37354.15 → 837.56 $
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat / Market.CSGO — outcomes: 17.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 31.7% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -260.10 $.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
marketplace pricesells slowly68% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly38% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly35% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly38% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly35% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
at a loss, a chance at an expensive oneoutcome without salesno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
How to build
Ways to build
3 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
13% of lots fit≈ enough for 1contract · medium (by listings)
Price understated: only 13% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0094
(6% of this wear's listings)
252.10 $
at 252.10
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009444f′ (normalized) 0.009444wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 15 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 510.34 $
×4
MP7 | Bloodsport
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0094
(4% of this wear's listings)
354.15 $
at 88.54
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.009444f′ (normalized) 0.014530wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 103 · good ≈ 4
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 398.69 $ · among lots up to 687.76 $
Set · 5 pcs606.25 $
+360.91
(+59.5%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414all outcomes come out at 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −324 $
!
16% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 16% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×3
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0111
(6% of this wear's listings)
756.31 $
at 252.10
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.011118f′ (normalized) 0.011118wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 15 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 510.34 $
×2
MP7 | Bloodsport
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0111
(5% of this wear's listings)
177.07 $
at 88.54
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.011118f′ (normalized) 0.017105wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 103 · good ≈ 5
on the market with this float, usually ~4,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 278.14 $ · among lots up to 687.76 $
Set · 5 pcs933.38 $
+10.90
(+1.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414all outcomes come out at 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −146 $
!
15% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 15% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0102
(6% of this wear's listings)
504.20 $
at 252.10
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.010213f′ (normalized) 0.010213wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 15 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 510.34 $
×3
MP7 | Bloodsport
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0102
(4% of this wear's listings)
265.61 $
at 88.54
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.010213f′ (normalized) 0.015713wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 103 · good ≈ 4
on the market with this float, usually ~3,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 398.69 $ · among lots up to 687.76 $
Set · 5 pcs769.82 $
+185.90
(+24.1%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414all outcomes come out at 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
48 outcomes
Profitable outcome 52%
Losing outcome 43%
About break-even 4%
about break-even
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape
Factory New
712.24 $3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)net 619.34you get 0.070000The Clutch Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 334.72 $
(you get 291.06)) · buy orders: 199
in profit
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls
Factory New
1 125.41 $3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)net 1102.90you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 125.41 $listings 10 · you get 1 102.90 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 288.29 $
(you get 1 120.26)) · buy orders: 63
at a loss
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint
Factory New
620.06 $3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)net 539.18you get 0.070000The Clutch Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal
Factory New
316.37 $3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Factory New)net 275.10you get 0.070000The Clutch Collection
Steam★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)net 2484.81you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 535.52 $listings 4 · you get 2 484.81 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 2 023.32 $
(you get 1 759.41)) · buy orders: 66
sell now to a buy order: 382.00 $
(you get 332.18)) · buy orders: 138
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green
Factory New
210.14 $3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)net 182.73you get 0.070000The Clutch Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 161.40 $
(you get 140.35)) · buy orders: 96
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade
Factory New
1 670.00 $3.33%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)net 1636.60you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 670.00 $listings 16 · you get 1 636.60 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $
(you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 51
sell now to a buy order: 275.26 $
(you get 239.35)) · buy orders: 102
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web
Factory New
1 000.00 $3.33%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 980.00you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 000.00 $listings 12 · you get 980.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 196.50 $
(you get 1 040.43)) · buy orders: 48
sell now to a buy order: 686.48 $
(you get 596.94)) · buy orders: 150
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Omega
Factory New
1 289.99 $3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New)net 1264.19you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 289.99 $listings 11 · you get 1 264.19 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 993.28 $
(you get 1 733.28)) · buy orders: 28
in profit
best
★ Sport Gloves | Vice
Factory New
5 500.00 $3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)net 5390.00you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 5 500.00 $listings 13 · you get 5 390.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternno buy orders
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious
Factory New
2 371.51 $3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)net 2324.08you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 371.51 $listings 14 · you get 2 324.08 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 2 177.46 $
(you get 1 893.44)) · buy orders: 58
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph
Factory New
543.94 $3.33%
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)net 472.99you get 0.070000The Clutch Collectionsells 1 a weeksell now to a buy order: 543.66 $
(you get 472.75)) · buy orders: 244
Steam★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New)net 970.42you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 461.43 $
(you get 401.24)) · buy orders: 79
at a loss
★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company
Factory New
393.78 $0.83%
price without deals
Steam★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New)net 342.42you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 206.79 $
(you get 179.82)) · buy orders: 164
in profit
★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out
Factory New
1 068.42 $0.83%
price without deals
Steam★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)net 929.06you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 735.48 $
(you get 639.55)) · buy orders: 117
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard
Factory New
2 015.75 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)net 1975.43you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 015.75 $listings 19 · you get 1 975.43 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $
(you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 53
sell now to a buy order: 413.05 $
(you get 359.17)) · buy orders: 107
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red
Factory New
569.74 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)net 558.35you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 569.74 $listings 16 · you get 558.35 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 795.53 $
(you get 691.76)) · buy orders: 142
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie
Factory New
1 140.00 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)net 1117.20you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 140.00 $listings 9 · you get 1 117.20 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternno buy orders
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent
Factory New
992.32 $0.83%
sell on Market.CSGO
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New)net 942.70you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on Market.CSGO from 992.32 $listings 5 · you get 942.70 $ (5.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 896.99 $
(you get 779.99)) · buy orders: 63
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade
Factory New
1 476.60 $0.83%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)net 1447.07you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 476.60 $listings 6 · you get 1 447.07 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $
(you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 27
sell now to a buy order: 658.79 $
(you get 572.86)) · buy orders: 70
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike
Factory New
1 167.42 $0.83%
sell on Market.CSGO
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)net 1109.05you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on Market.CSGO from 1 167.42 $listings 7 · you get 1 109.05 $ (5.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 227.12 $
(you get 1 067.06)) · buy orders: 47
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh
Factory New
936.63 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)net 917.90you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 936.63 $listings 10 · you get 917.90 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 246.10 $
(you get 1 083.56)) · buy orders: 74
about break-even
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game
Factory New
638.95 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)net 626.17you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 638.95 $listings 5 · you get 626.17 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 946.88 $
(you get 823.38)) · buy orders: 89
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts
Factory New
2 700.18 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)net 2646.18you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 700.18 $listings 14 · you get 2 646.18 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $
(you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 94
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot
Factory New
2 500.00 $0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)net 2450.00you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 500.00 $listings 3 · you get 2 450.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $
(you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 78
at a loss
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point
Factory New
192.33 $0.83%
Steam★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Factory New)net 167.24you get 0.070000sells 2 a weeksell now to a buy order: 175.08 $
(you get 152.24)) · buy orders: 127
sell now to a buy order: 350.78 $
(you get 305.02)) · buy orders: 121
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+312.63 $a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+368.52 $historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Operation Broken Fang Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
7 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1744262
· The Clutch Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 360.91$
· invest 606.25$
P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.009444
Craft 1744295
· The Clutch Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 352.27$
· invest 514.17$
P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.009444
Craft 1743696
· The Clutch Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 344.42$
· invest 551.05$
no outcome pricemarketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputspricier variants exist
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009417 instead of 0.009444
Craft 1743697
· The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 344.42$
· invest 551.05$
no outcome pricemarketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputspricier variants exist
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009417 instead of 0.009444
Craft 1744272
· The Prisma 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 341.76$
· invest 503.18$
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
