The Dead Hand Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +91 600.61₸

Invest 498 683.11₸

Average return 590 283.72₸

ROI +18.4%

Chance of profit 62%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 168 944.32₸ · profit at most −578 660.60₸ (at most -49.5%) · chance of profit at most 7%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) × 4 17% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 447750.32 → 1058929.50 ₸

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 17% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 50932.80 → 110014.84 ₸

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −36 196 ₸

The gain is understated. 4 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 6.2% of the probability.

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 18. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 61.3% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -368 613.30 ₸.

+ a third collection

How to build

17% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

447 750.32 ₸

at 111 937.58

Steam

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

50 932.80 ₸

at 50 932.80

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 498 683.11 ₸ +91 600.61 (+18.4%)

The gain is understated, noticeably. 4 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap. The calculation counts them as zero, so the profit shown is a lower bound. Such outcomes carry 12% of the probability.

profit on prices without sales at least −83 548 ₸

16% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

335 812.74 ₸

at 111 937.58

Steam

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

101 865.59 ₸

at 50 932.80

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 437 678.33 ₸ +28 342.78 (+6.5%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 58%
Losing outcome 32%
About break-even 4%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

599 361.60 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

704 963.61 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

776 665.71 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

538 988.58 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

664 570.58 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

424 586.76 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

542 197.45 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

833 101.04 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

631 709.94 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

718 350.22 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

677 237.09 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

599 592.46 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

1 956 767.96 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

642 074.08 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

760 208.83 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

722 868.14 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

480 897.09 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

395 318.49 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

351 919.34 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

628 040.56 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

1 969 815.69 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

831 298.37 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

117 593.60 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

116 906.09 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

154 188.18 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

65 256.93 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

502 696.27 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

95 966.05 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

169 422.20 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

89 659.01 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

52 344.95 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +87 701.90 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +90 899.28 ₸ historical median

4% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history — their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1744420 · The Gamma Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 100 147.34₸ · invest 522 979.39₸
profit on prices without salesat least −41 438 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744422 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 100 147.34₸ · invest 522 979.39₸
profit on prices without salesat least −41 438 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744162 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 100 117.54₸ · invest 515 080.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −35 706 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744164 · The Chroma Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 100 117.54₸ · invest 515 080.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −35 706 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744436 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 99 261.60₸ · invest 488 416.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −27 034 ₸ продажа ненадёжна marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744438 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 99 261.60₸ · invest 488 416.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −27 034 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744416 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 98 224.30₸ · invest 524 902.43₸
profit on prices without salesat least −43 361 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744418 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 98 224.30₸ · invest 524 902.43₸
profit on prices without salesat least −43 361 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744402 · The Fever Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 95 188.83₸ · invest 495 652.25₸
profit on prices without salesat least −25 352 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744404 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 95 188.83₸ · invest 495 652.25₸
profit on prices without salesat least −25 352 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744484 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 94 763.82₸ · invest 503 996.62₸
profit on prices without salesat least −39 281 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744486 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 94 763.82₸ · invest 503 996.62₸
profit on prices without salesat least −39 281 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744498 · The Spectrum Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 93 261.33₸ · invest 516 130.41₸
profit on prices without salesat least −33 965 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744500 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 93 261.33₸ · invest 516 130.41₸
profit on prices without salesat least −33 965 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744440 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 93 246.12₸ · invest 561 648.33₸
profit on prices without salesat least −52 424 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744443 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 93 246.12₸ · invest 561 648.33₸
profit on prices without salesat least −52 424 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744508 · The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 91 600.63₸ · invest 498 683.11₸
profit on prices without salesat least −36 196 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 1744094 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 90 353.25₸ · invest 524 844.41₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 471 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 1744096 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 90 353.25₸ · invest 524 844.41₸
profit on prices without salesat least −45 471 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build