The Recoil Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +2 764.48₽

Invest 18 602.12₽

Average return 21 366.60₽

ROI +14.9%

Chance of profit 38%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 43 286.76₽ · profit at most −21 920.16₽ (at most -50.6%) · chance of profit at most 10%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) × 4 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 15152.12 → 35834.76 ₽

AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 8% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 3450.00 → 7452.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −13 813 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The Recoil Collection + The Falchion Collection

+2 764.48 ₽ +14.9% chance of profit 38%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear) · 80 450.93 ₽ · chance 3.3%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 813 ₽

4× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1694

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+136 331.94 ₽ +94.7% chance of profit 32%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0071

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+113 849.48 ₽ +74.0% chance of profit 27%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
4× SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075

Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

+68 100.34 ₽ +32.1% chance of profit 21%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0124
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0124

Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

+45 617.88 ₽ +20.5% chance of profit 20%

expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) · 2 459 587.25 ₽ · chance 3.3%

no outcome price

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135
4× Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135

Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

−8 758.27 ₽ −8.8% chance of profit 37%

expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 318 990.83 ₽ · chance 6.2%

at a loss, a chance at an expensive one no outcome price

1× AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
4× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

15 152.12 ₽

at 3 788.03

Steam

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1694

3 450.00 ₽

at 3 450.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 602.12 ₽ +2 764.48 (+14.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 59%
About break-even 7%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Minimal Wear

9 085.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Minimal Wear

18 279.82 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Minimal Wear

8 691.31 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Minimal Wear

11 137.01 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Minimal Wear

21 399.85 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Minimal Wear

17 654.52 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Minimal Wear

8 924.53 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Minimal Wear

20 632.15 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Minimal Wear

67 656.49 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Minimal Wear

11 439.20 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Minimal Wear

13 992.15 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Minimal Wear

28 821.82 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Minimal Wear

29 092.27 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Minimal Wear

47 399.98 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Minimal Wear

20 132.36 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Minimal Wear

39 000.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Minimal Wear

35 808.90 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Minimal Wear

23 150.74 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Minimal Wear

91 534.34 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Minimal Wear

92 518.57 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Minimal Wear

6 000.80 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Minimal Wear

13 876.79 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Minimal Wear

8 000.44 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Minimal Wear

8 661.37 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

23 575.53 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

26 213.63 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

17 091.56 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

10 250.53 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

20 237.71 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

7 283.64 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

8 422.96 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

23 425.39 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

10 118.29 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

7 029.84 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

6 364.61 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

10 836.56 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

11 707.30 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -405.94 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 990.96 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1744855 · The Recoil Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 2 871.22₽ · invest 19 943.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 957 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 1744857 · The Horizon Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 871.22₽ · invest 19 943.91₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 957 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 1743985 · The Recoil Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 2 824.78₽ · invest 18 761.18₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 401 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078828 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1743987 · The CS20 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 824.78₽ · invest 18 761.18₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 401 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078828 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1744597 · The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 764.48₽ · invest 18 602.12₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 813 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 1745173 · The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 666.35₽ · invest 18 408.02₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 900 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083568 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1745175 · The Recoil Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 2 666.35₽ · invest 18 408.02₽
profit on prices without salesat least −13 900 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083568 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1744899 · The Recoil Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 2 627.71₽ · invest 18 965.19₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 344 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085135 instead of 0.076765
Craft 1744901 · The Huntsman Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 627.71₽ · invest 18 965.19₽
profit on prices without salesat least −14 344 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085135 instead of 0.076765

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Recoil Collection + The Falchion Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build