The Operation Broken Fang Collection
+ The Revolution Collection
Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5About the craftCraft 1744970 · ways to build: 2A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+23 554.75₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».59 290.06₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.82 844.81₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+39.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.46%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 135 794.09₽
· profit at most −52 949.29₽
(at most -39.0%) · chance of profit at most 16%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) × 119% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.1621594.62 → 46644.38 ₽
AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New) × 419% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.3737695.44 → 89149.72 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 626 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 626 ₽: ★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New), ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New), ★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Factory New), ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New), ★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Factory New) and 24 more
!
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat / Market.CSGO — outcomes: 17.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 31.7% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -29 639.20 ₽.
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
profit on prices without salesat least −4 626 ₽marketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly38% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
1× AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0075
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly35% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly38% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
1× AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0135
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly35% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
at a loss, a chance at an expensive oneoutcome without salesno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
How to build
Ways to build
2 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
19% of lots fit≈ enough for 1contract · medium (by listings)
Price understated: only 19% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0135
(6% of this wear's listings)
21 594.62 ₽
at 21 594.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.013513f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 15 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 43 714.67 ₽
×4
AK-47 | Head Shot
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0135
(9% of this wear's listings)
37 695.44 ₽
at 9 423.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.013513f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 72 · good ≈ 7
on the market with this float, usually ~8,
new ~0.25 per day, cheapest usually 25 821.11 ₽
Set · 5 pcs59 290.06 ₽
+23 554.75
(+39.7%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414all outcomes come out at 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −18 009 ₽
!
19% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (by listings)
Price understated: only 19% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×2
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0135
(6% of this wear's listings)
43 189.24 ₽
at 21 594.62
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.013513f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 15 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 43 714.67 ₽
×3
AK-47 | Head Shot
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0135
(9% of this wear's listings)
28 271.58 ₽
at 9 423.86
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.013513f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 72 · good ≈ 7
on the market with this float, usually ~8,
new ~0.25 per day, cheapest usually 25 821.11 ₽
Set · 5 pcs71 460.82 ₽
+10 404.38
(+14.6%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414all outcomes come out at 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
48 outcomes
Profitable outcome 42%
Losing outcome 54%
About break-even 3%
at a loss
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape
Factory New
61 009.00 ₽3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)net 53051.30you get 0.070000The Revolution Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 28 671.87 ₽
(you get 24 932.06)) · buy orders: 199
in profit
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls
Factory New
96 400.50 ₽3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)net 94472.49you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 96 400.50 ₽listings 10 · you get 94 472.49 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 110 352.85 ₽
(you get 95 959.00)) · buy orders: 63
at a loss
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint
Factory New
53 112.91 ₽3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)net 46185.14you get 0.070000The Revolution Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders
at a loss
★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal
Factory New
27 099.26 ₽3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Factory New)net 23564.57you get 0.070000The Revolution Collection
Steam★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)net 212844.12you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 217 187.88 ₽listings 4 · you get 212 844.12 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 173 313.53 ₽
(you get 150 707.41)) · buy orders: 66
sell now to a buy order: 32 721.54 ₽
(you get 28 453.51)) · buy orders: 138
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green
Factory New
18 000.00 ₽3.33%
price without deals
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)net 15652.17you get 0.070000The Revolution Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 825.30 ₽
(you get 12 022.00)) · buy orders: 96
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade
Factory New
143 049.06 ₽3.33%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)net 140188.07you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 143 049.06 ₽listings 16 · you get 140 188.07 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽
(you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 51
sell now to a buy order: 23 577.98 ₽
(you get 20 502.59)) · buy orders: 102
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web
Factory New
85 658.12 ₽3.33%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 83944.95you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 85 658.12 ₽listings 12 · you get 83 944.95 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 102 489.69 ₽
(you get 89 121.46)) · buy orders: 48
sell now to a buy order: 58 802.96 ₽
(you get 51 133.00)) · buy orders: 150
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Omega
Factory New
110 498.12 ₽3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New)net 108288.15you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 110 498.12 ₽listings 11 · you get 108 288.15 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 170 740.30 ₽
(you get 148 469.82)) · buy orders: 28
in profit
best
★ Sport Gloves | Vice
Factory New
471 119.66 ₽3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)net 461697.26you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 471 119.66 ₽listings 13 · you get 461 697.26 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternno buy orders
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious
Factory New
203 139.09 ₽3.33%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)net 199076.30you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionno price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 203 139.09 ₽listings 14 · you get 199 076.30 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 186 517.28 ₽
(you get 162 188.93)) · buy orders: 58
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph
Factory New
46 593.22 ₽3.33%
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New)net 40515.84you get 0.070000The Revolution Collectionsells 1 a weeksell now to a buy order: 46 568.84 ₽
(you get 40 494.64)) · buy orders: 244
Steam★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New)net 83124.75you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 39 525.18 ₽
(you get 34 369.72)) · buy orders: 79
at a loss
★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company
Factory New
33 730.60 ₽0.83%
price without deals
Steam★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New)net 29330.96you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 17 713.37 ₽
(you get 15 402.93)) · buy orders: 164
in profit
★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out
Factory New
91 518.75 ₽0.83%
price without deals
Steam★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)net 79581.52you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 62 999.89 ₽
(you get 54 782.51)) · buy orders: 117
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard
Factory New
172 665.35 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)net 169212.04you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 172 665.35 ₽listings 19 · you get 169 212.04 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽
(you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 53
sell now to a buy order: 35 380.84 ₽
(you get 30 765.94)) · buy orders: 107
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red
Factory New
48 802.86 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)net 47826.80you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 48 802.86 ₽listings 16 · you get 47 826.80 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 68 143.50 ₽
(you get 59 255.21)) · buy orders: 142
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie
Factory New
97 650.26 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)net 95697.25you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 97 650.26 ₽listings 9 · you get 95 697.25 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternno buy orders
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent
Factory New
85 000.00 ₽0.83%
sell on Market.CSGO
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New)net 80750.00you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on Market.CSGO from 85 000.00 ₽listings 5 · you get 80 750.00 ₽ (5.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 76 834.76 ₽
(you get 66 812.83)) · buy orders: 63
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade
Factory New
126 482.78 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)net 123953.12you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 126 482.78 ₽listings 6 · you get 123 953.12 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽
(you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 27
sell now to a buy order: 56 430.53 ₽
(you get 49 070.02)) · buy orders: 70
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike
Factory New
99 999.00 ₽0.83%
sell on Market.CSGO
Steam★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)net 94999.05you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on Market.CSGO from 99 999.00 ₽listings 7 · you get 94 999.05 ₽ (5.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 105 112.66 ₽
(you get 91 402.31)) · buy orders: 47
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh
Factory New
80 229.96 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)net 78625.36you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 80 229.96 ₽listings 10 · you get 78 625.36 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 106 738.26 ₽
(you get 92 815.87)) · buy orders: 74
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game
Factory New
54 731.26 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)net 53636.63you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 54 731.26 ₽listings 5 · you get 53 636.63 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 81 108.19 ₽
(you get 70 528.86)) · buy orders: 89
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts
Factory New
231 292.34 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)net 226666.49you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 231 292.34 ₽listings 14 · you get 226 666.49 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽
(you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 94
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot
Factory New
214 145.30 ₽0.83%
sell on CSFloat
Steam★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)net 209862.39you get 0.070000no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 214 145.30 ₽listings 3 · you get 209 862.39 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 170 746.99 ₽
(you get 148 475.64)) · buy orders: 78
at a loss
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point
Factory New
16 474.48 ₽0.83%
Steam★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Factory New)net 14325.63you get 0.070000sells 2 a weeksell now to a buy order: 14 996.70 ₽
(you get 13 040.60)) · buy orders: 127
sell now to a buy order: 30 046.94 ₽
(you get 26 127.77)) · buy orders: 121
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+19 419.54 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+24 207.24 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Broken Fang Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
1 craft almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1744968
· The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 23 554.75₽
· invest 59 290.06₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 626 ₽marketplace pricerare inputspricier variants exist
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
