The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit −83.18$

Invest 224.27$

Average return 141.09$

ROI −37.1%

Chance of profit 15%

If buying now (with float)

invest 243.33$ · profit −102.24$ (-42.0%) · chance of profit 15%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) × 5 81% of the wear window fits ×1.08 224.27 → 243.33 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

The gain is understated. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 7.7% of the probability.

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Covert → нож или перчатки

−83.18 $ −37.1% chance of profit 15%

expensive: ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) · 420.68 $ · chance 7.7%

no outcome price

5× StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.3372

Variant 2 Restricted → Classified

+12.55 $ +15.8% chance of profit 67%

expensive: StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) · 107.65 $ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −79 $

5× StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
5× StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0061

Variant 3 Classified → Covert

+294.70 $ +58.4% chance of profit 50%

expensive: StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) · 1 496.81 $ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −505 $

9× StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
1× StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

How to build

81% of lots fit ≈ enough for 2 contracts · medium (estimate)

×5

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3372

224.27 $

at 44.85

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 224.27 $ -83.18 (-37.1%)

What you get 13 outcomes

Profitable outcome 15%
Losing outcome 77%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

315.03 $ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

483.78 $ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

161.66 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

147.39 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

220.02 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

66.17 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

83.75 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

198.46 $ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Well-Worn

119.52 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

81.77 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

not on Steam — above the cap 7.69%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

81.72 $ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

150.02 $ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -97.88 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week -87.05 $ historical median

15% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history — their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1745449 · The Wildfire Collection · profit -83.18$ · invest 224.27$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.287999 instead of 0.337297

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 13 outcomes

More

How to build