Knives and gloves · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1750039 · ways to build: 1 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −9 777.22₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 22 008.81₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 12 231.59₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −44.4%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 15%

If buying now (with float)

invest 24 536.36₽ · profit −12 304.77₽ (-50.1%) · chance of profit 9%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 70% of the wear window fits ×1.04 6640.61 → 6915.53 ₽
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) × 4 70% of the wear window fits ×1.15 15368.20 → 17621.18 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 6.2% of the probability.

No other variants in this recount

How to build Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

70% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (estimate)
×1
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.3103
6 640.61 ₽
at 6 640.61
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.310344f′ (normalized) 0.310344wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 20 · good ≈ 8
Market history: no data yet
×4
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.3103
15 368.20 ₽
at 3 842.05
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.310344f′ (normalized) 0.484913wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 16 · good ≈ 7
Market history: no data yet
Set · 5 pcs 22 008.81 ₽ -9 777.22 (-44.4%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.449999900 result 0.036000, 0.122500, 0.450000, 0.450000, 0.450000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.000000, 0.036000, 0.122500, 0.450000, 0.450000, 0.450000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.393000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 15%
  • Losing outcome 78%
  • Above the Steam cap 6%
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade
Factory New
26 985.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 23465.22 you get 0.036000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 22 463.97 ₽ (you get 19 533.88)) · buy orders: 426 sell on Market.CSGO: 21 155.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 23 197.17 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 20 864.60 ₽ listings: 12 on CS.Money: ~ 21 465.92 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 237.22 ₽ listings: 9
in profit
best
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Minimal Wear
41 439.58 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)net 36034.42 you get 0.122500The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 21 768.78 ₽ (you get 18 929.37)) · buy orders: 150 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 334.40 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 200.00 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 19 700.51 ₽ listings: 4 on Lis-Skins: from 18 479.88 ₽ listings: 5
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Well-Worn
13 847.27 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)net 12041.10 you get 0.450000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 17 599.25 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 13 350.05 ₽ (you get 11 608.73)) · buy orders: 89 sell on Market.CSGO: 12 494.39 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 13 699.99 · lots 7 CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 12 374.17 ₽ listings: 5
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained
Well-Worn
12 625.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)net 10978.26 you get 0.450000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 10 064.42 ₽ (you get 8 751.66)) · buy orders: 89 sell on Market.CSGO: 10 430.40 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 11 436.85 · lots 3 CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 10 431.45 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Well-Worn
18 846.19 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)net 16387.99 you get 0.450000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 25 443.24 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 16 964.64 ₽ (you get 14 751.86)) · buy orders: 134 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 18 416.50 ₽ listings: 5 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
worst
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Well-Worn
5 667.57 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)net 4928.32 you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 10 675.97 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 496.69 ₽ (you get 5 649.29)) · buy orders: 94 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 292.59 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 6 899.78 · lots 3 on Lis-Skins: from 7 191.86 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Well-Worn
7 173.79 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)net 6238.08 you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 8 792.99 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 7 148.84 ₽ (you get 6 216.38)) · buy orders: 75 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 972.47 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 645.26 · lots 3 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Well-Worn
17 000.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)net 14782.61 you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night
Well-Worn
10 238.07 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn)net 8902.67 you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 18 000.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 869.62 ₽ (you get 5 973.58)) · buy orders: 70 sell on Market.CSGO: 10 663.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 11 692.75 · lots 7 CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 10 999.36 ₽ listings: 6
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Well-Worn
7 004.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)net 6090.43 you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 7 539.29 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 798.86 ₽ (you get 5 912.05)) · buy orders: 41 not listed on Market.CSGO right now
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Well-Worn
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection sell now to a buy order: 6 909.78 ₽ (you get 6 008.50)) · buy orders: 93 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 11 019.92 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Well-Worn
7 000.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)net 6086.96 you get 0.393000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 23 570.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 5 550.01 ₽ (you get 4 826.09)) · buy orders: 62 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 566.40 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 200.00 · lots 5 on Lis-Skins: from 6 922.03 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife
no wear
12 850.18 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knifenet 11174.07The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 091.42 ₽ (you get 9 644.71)) · buy orders: 193 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 9 439.52 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 12 026.40 ₽ listings: 29
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade
Factory New
31 696.92 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 27562.54 you get 0.036000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 26 315.70 ₽ (you get 22 883.21)) · buy orders: 259 sell on Market.CSGO: 24 992.06 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 27 403.58 · lots 4 on CSFloat: from 21 414.53 ₽ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 22 860.44 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 166.98 ₽ listings: 13
in profit
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Minimal Wear
29 549.72 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)net 25695.41 you get 0.122500
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 36 449.49 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 18 703.08 ₽ (you get 16 263.54)) · buy orders: 161 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 970.13 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 897.08 · lots 4 on CSFloat: from 18 588.67 ₽ listings: 4 on Lis-Skins: from 20 408.05 ₽ listings: 6
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Well-Worn
18 340.57 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)net 15948.32 you get 0.450000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 13 497.28 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 14 799.65 · lots 3 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained
Well-Worn
11 244.40 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)net 9777.74 you get 0.450000
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 20 700.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 9 137.82 ₽ (you get 7 945.93)) · buy orders: 113 sell on Market.CSGO: 7 843.20 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 8 600.00 · lots 4 CSFloat: 2 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 8 964.12 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Well-Worn
19 702.83 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)net 17132.90 you get 0.450000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 14 185.81 ₽ (you get 12 335.48)) · buy orders: 101 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 17 131.62 ₽ listings: 7 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Well-Worn
6 570.23 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)net 5713.24 you get 0.393000
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 7 388.56 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 6 898.31 ₽ (you get 5 998.53)) · buy orders: 99 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Well-Worn
8 288.45 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)net 7207.35 you get 0.393000
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 12 089.20 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 7 782.83 ₽ (you get 6 767.67)) · buy orders: 136 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 13 719.86 ₽ listings: 5
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Well-Worn
15 352.44 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)net 13349.95 you get 0.393000
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 18 224.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 17 434.15 ₽ (you get 15 160.13)) · buy orders: 128 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night
Well-Worn
8 738.64 ₽ 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Well-Worn)net 7598.82 you get 0.393000 sells ≈2 a week — 6 of 7 days measured no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 9 211.20 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 10 100.00 · lots 4 on Lis-Skins: from 9 509.76 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Well-Worn
8 510.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)net 7400.00 you get 0.393000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 062.56 ₽ (you get 5 271.79)) · buy orders: 116 sell on Market.CSGO: 8 440.68 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 9 255.14 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 7 194.43 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 7 373.45 ₽ listings: 7
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Well-Worn
7 365.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)net 6404.35 you get 0.393000
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 9 699.00 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 8 552.60 ₽ (you get 7 437.04)) · buy orders: 131 sell on Market.CSGO: 9 118.92 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 9 998.82 · lots 3 CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 9 566.30 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Well-Worn
9 254.75 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals price cut pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)net 8047.61 you get 0.393000
by lot · 0 sales per day
listed at 18 310.45 ₽, the better wear is cheaper sell now to a buy order: 11 735.92 ₽ (you get 10 205.14)) · buy orders: 116 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife
no wear
16 990.85 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knifenet 14774.65
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 12 885.32 ₽ (you get 11 204.62)) · buy orders: 266 sell on Market.CSGO: 12 462.77 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 13 665.32 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 11 433.65 ₽ listings: 11 on CS.Money: ~ 13 732.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 12 738.22 ₽ listings: 24
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites Proven in practice How crafts work