Knives and gloves · The Falchion Collection
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The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 1750041 · ways to build: 4 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, not at the price of its normal counterpart. A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −17 105.08₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 34 657.04₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 17 551.96₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −49.4%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 6%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 76 658.47₽ · profit at most −59 106.51₽ (at most -77.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 18% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 6640.61 → 14343.72 ₽
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 18% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 17992.62 → 40663.32 ₽
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 18% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 10023.81 → 21651.43 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 2 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 7.7% of the probability.

No other variants in this recount

How to build Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

18% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)
×1
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1918
6 640.61 ₽
at 6 640.61
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.191849f′ (normalized) 0.191849wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 20 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 6 of 59 · from 6 352.41 ₽ (float 0.1804) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0845
17 992.62 ₽
at 5 997.54
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.084556f′ (normalized) 0.132119wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 7 of 47 · from 4 231.51 ₽ (float 0.0844) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0127
10 023.81 ₽
at 10 023.81
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.012736f′ (normalized) 0.019901wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 19 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 37 415.39 ₽
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 37) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 5 pcs 34 657.04 ₽ -17 105.08 (-49.4%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.121621522 result 0.009730, 0.040405, 0.121622, 0.121622, 0.121622, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.000000, 0.009730, 0.040405, 0.121622, 0.121622, 0.121622, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 6%
  • Losing outcome 85%
  • About break-even 2%
  • Above the Steam cap 8%
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade
Factory New
26 985.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 23465.22 you get 0.009730The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 22 463.97 ₽ (you get 19 533.88)) · buy orders: 426 sell on Market.CSGO: 21 155.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 23 197.17 · lots 3 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 20 864.60 ₽ listings: 12 on CS.Money: ~ 21 465.92 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 237.22 ₽ listings: 9
in profit
best
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
59 530.35 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 51765.52 you get 0.040405The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 26 892.31 ₽ (you get 23 384.61)) · buy orders: 222 sell on Market.CSGO: 33 652.80 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 36 900.00 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 31 872.53 ₽ listings: 6 on Lis-Skins: from 38 903.35 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Minimal Wear
29 554.24 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)net 25699.34 you get 0.121622The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 898.76 ₽ (you get 7 738.05)) · buy orders: 109 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained
Minimal Wear
16 635.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)net 14465.22 you get 0.121622The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 10 977.62 ₽ (you get 9 545.75)) · buy orders: 111 sell on Market.CSGO: 12 550.45 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 13 761.46 · lots 3 CSFloat: 2 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 11 881.64 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
37 488.67 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)net 32598.84 you get 0.121622The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 20 340.16 ₽ (you get 17 687.09)) · buy orders: 121 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 36 702.79 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Minimal Wear
9 637.31 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)net 8380.27 you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 043.43 ₽ (you get 5 255.15)) · buy orders: 129 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Minimal Wear
11 999.99 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)net 10434.77 you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 798.86 ₽ (you get 5 912.05)) · buy orders: 82 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 652.56 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 294.48 · lots 4 on CSFloat: from 11 819.96 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 6 737.87 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Minimal Wear
24 999.00 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)net 21738.26 you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 17 458.06 ₽ (you get 15 180.92)) · buy orders: 115 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 142.39 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 699.99 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 14 990.17 ₽ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 15 891.29 ₽ listings: 6
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night
Minimal Wear
18 003.07 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)net 15654.84 you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 189.40 ₽ (you get 11 469.04)) · buy orders: 84 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 18 795.10 ₽ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Minimal Wear
13 009.72 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)net 11312.80 you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 980.77 ₽ (you get 6 939.80)) · buy orders: 97 not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
worst
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Minimal Wear
8 287.47 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)net 7206.50 you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 6 423.50 ₽ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Minimal Wear
not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) you get 0.150000The Wildfire Collection sell now to a buy order: 8 798.35 ₽ (you get 7 650.73)) · buy orders: 64 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 2 lots — too few, no price on CS.Money: ~ 7 458.25 ₽ Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife
no wear
12 850.18 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knifenet 11174.07The Wildfire Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 091.42 ₽ (you get 9 644.71)) · buy orders: 193 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 9 439.52 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 12 026.40 ₽ listings: 29
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade
Factory New
31 696.92 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 27562.54 you get 0.009730
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 26 315.70 ₽ (you get 22 883.21)) · buy orders: 259 sell on Market.CSGO: 24 992.06 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 27 403.58 · lots 4 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 21 414.53 ₽ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 22 860.44 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 166.98 ₽ listings: 13
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
29 549.72 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 25695.41 you get 0.040405
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 23 989.17 ₽ (you get 20 860.14)) · buy orders: 256 sell on Market.CSGO: 19 985.56 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 21 914.00 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 21 431.66 ₽ listings: 7 on CS.Money: ~ 21 255.21 ₽ Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Minimal Wear
26 020.53 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)net 22626.55 you get 0.121622
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 443.76 ₽ (you get 11 690.22)) · buy orders: 120 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained
Minimal Wear
11 244.40 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)net 9777.74 you get 0.121622
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 9 337.67 ₽ (you get 8 119.71)) · buy orders: 109 sell on Market.CSGO: 9 129.12 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 10 010.00 · lots 4 CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 9 173.98 ₽ listings: 3
about break-even
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
39 405.67 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)net 34265.80 you get 0.121622
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 014.59 ₽ (you get 15 664.86)) · buy orders: 145 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 21 405.96 ₽ listings: 10 on Lis-Skins: from 24 734.64 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Minimal Wear
10 764.25 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)net 9360.22 you get 0.150000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 6 136.55 ₽ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Minimal Wear
16 100.00 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)net 14000.00 you get 0.150000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 10 726.12 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 11 761.10 · lots 4 on CSFloat: from 8 985.54 ₽ listings: 4 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Minimal Wear
not on Steam — above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) you get 0.150000 no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 2 lots — too few, no price on CS.Money: ~ 17 434.85 ₽ Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night
Minimal Wear
13 973.89 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)net 12151.21 you get 0.150000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 495.23 ₽ (you get 7 387.15)) · buy orders: 85 sell on Market.CSGO: 15 603.91 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 109.56 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 10 707.26 ₽ listings: 6 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Minimal Wear
11 821.69 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)net 10279.73 you get 0.150000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 259.77 ₽ (you get 6 312.84)) · buy orders: 139 sell on Market.CSGO: 8 208.00 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 9 000.00 · lots 4 on CSFloat: from 9 311.04 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 11 230.64 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Minimal Wear
12 441.31 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)net 10818.53 you get 0.150000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 6 566.38 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 199.98 · lots 7 on CSFloat: from 6 467.19 ₽ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 6 139.12 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Minimal Wear
16 079.47 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)net 13982.15 you get 0.150000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 347.01 ₽ (you get 7 258.26)) · buy orders: 99 sell on Market.CSGO: 9 206.82 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 10 095.20 · lots 4 CSFloat: 1 lots — too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 10 555.65 ₽ listings: 5
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife
no wear
16 990.85 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knifenet 14774.65
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 12 885.32 ₽ (you get 11 204.62)) · buy orders: 266 sell on Market.CSGO: 12 462.77 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 13 665.32 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 11 433.65 ₽ listings: 11 on CS.Money: ~ 13 732.71 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 12 738.22 ₽ listings: 24
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