The Kilowatt Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −166.36$

Invest 353.21$

Average return 186.85$

ROI −47.1%

Chance of profit 12%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 820.34$ · profit at most −633.49$ (at most -77.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) × 1 17% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 73.14 → 157.98 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 4 17% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 280.07 → 662.36 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

The gain is understated. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 6.2% of the probability.

No other variants in this recount

How to build

17% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0838

73.14 $

at 73.14

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0838

280.07 $

at 70.02

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 353.21 $ -166.36 (-47.1%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 12%
Losing outcome 82%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

315.03 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

694.98 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

345.03 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

194.20 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

437.65 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

112.51 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

140.09 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

291.85 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

210.17 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

151.88 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

96.75 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

not on Steam — above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

150.02 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

218.85 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

180.34 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

115.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

95.22 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

20.07 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

78.28 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

83.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

159.30 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

86.23 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

72.45 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Minimal Wear

73.51 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

102.39 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife

no wear

121.91 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -186.87 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week -170.66 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Kilowatt Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1751893 · The Wildfire Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit -166.36$ · invest 353.21$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 1753075 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit -168.04$ · invest 419.80$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.083876
Craft 1753083 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit -168.04$ · invest 419.80$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.083876

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Kilowatt Collection + The Wildfire Collection

If buying now (with float)

No other variants in this recount

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build