Knives and gloves · The Breakout Collection
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The Breakout Collection

Classified → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 10 About the craft Craft 1753531 · ways to build: 1 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −15.56$
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 350.74$
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 1 335.18$
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −1.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 23%
From the outcome -69.03 if you feed everything on without selling
Selling intermediates +53.48 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 917.13$ · profit at most −2 581.95$ (at most -65.9%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) × 50 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 1350.74 → 3917.13 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
The gain is understated. 1 outcomes have no price on Steam — they're above its cap and aren't listed. The calculation counts them as zero; they carry 7.7% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 10. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 76.9% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -1 087.23 $.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Classified → нож или перчатки
−15.56 $ −1.2% chance of profit 23%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 3 724.00 $ · chance 7.7%
no outcome price marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 15 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 10× Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+17.77 $ +59.0% chance of profit 67%
expensive: Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New) · 76.54 $ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −8 $ rare inputs The rarest input sells 12 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0758
  • 1× Nova | Koi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0051
Variant 3 Covert → нож или перчатки
+81.59 $ +6.8% chance of profit 46%
expensive: ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) · 3 724.00 $ · chance 7.7%
profit on prices without salesat least −128 $ no outcome price Outcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understated marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. rare inputs The rarest input sells 7 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 5× M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0067

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)
×50
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
1 350.74 $
at 27.01
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details10 per contract, for each of the 5 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.004054f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 358 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day · among lots up to 38.51 $ · little data: 2.9 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 5 of 352 · from 39.73 $ (float 0.0020) · craft not before 14.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
50
buy
Classified
5
5 contracts
Covert
1
1 contract
knife or gloves

Craft on only from M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 240.02 $.

Set · 50 pcs 1 350.74 $ -15.56 (-1.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 result 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.070000, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 13 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Classified → Covert

5 contracts of 10 · 5 items drop
craft on
M4A1-S | Cyrex
Factory New
240.02 $ 50%
Steam M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)fetches 208.72, no more than the replacement you get 0.0068
sell
P90 | Asiimov
Factory New
300.63 $ 50%
price without deals
Steam P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)+21.39 each above the replacement
by lot · 0 sales per day
you get 0.0124
2

Covert → нож или перчатки

1 contract of 5 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 23%
  • Losing outcome 69%
  • Above the Steam cap 8%
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade
Factory New
2 070.69 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 2029.28 you get 0.001081 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 2 070.69 $ listings 278 · you get 2 029.28 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 2 083.64 $ (you get 1 811.86)) · buy orders: 3645 sell on Market.CSGO: 2 097.22 $ to your card cheapest lot 2 299.58 · lots 25 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 2 070.69 $ listings: 278 on CS.Money: ~ 2 316.21 $ on Lis-Skins: from 2 100.96 $ listings: 193
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
1 281.64 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 1256.01 you get 0.013378 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 281.64 $ listings 157 · you get 1 256.01 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 818.94 $ (you get 1 581.68)) · buy orders: 1363 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 437.34 $ to your card cheapest lot 1 576.03 · lots 13 on CSFloat: from 1 281.64 $ listings: 157 on CS.Money: ~ 1 597.97 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 395.64 $ listings: 55
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel
Factory New
1 104.20 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)net 1082.12 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 104.20 $ listings 10 · you get 1 082.12 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 172.36 $ (you get 1 019.44)) · buy orders: 505 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 222.08 $ to your card cheapest lot 1 340.01 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 1 104.20 $ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 1 205.58 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 194.16 $ listings: 13
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained
Factory New
1 285.09 $ 7.69%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)net 1117.47 you get 0.013513
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 1 054.84 $ (you get 917.26)) · buy orders: 361 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 875.20 $ listings: 6 on CS.Money: ~ 906.33 $ on Lis-Skins: from 862.94 $ listings: 21
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Factory New
1 293.67 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)net 1267.80 you get 0.013513 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 293.67 $ listings 24 · you get 1 267.80 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 648.54 $ (you get 1 433.51)) · buy orders: 414 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 1 293.67 $ listings: 24 on CS.Money: ~ 1 370.49 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 397.01 $ listings: 21
at a loss
worst
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT
Factory New
700.17 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)net 686.17 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 700.17 $ listings 5 · you get 686.17 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 689.71 $ (you get 599.75)) · buy orders: 128 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 700.17 $ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 722.43 $ listings: 5
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest
Factory New
844.00 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)net 827.12 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 844.00 $ listings 3 · you get 827.12 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 897.04 $ (you get 780.03)) · buy orders: 135 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 844.00 $ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 825.88 $ on Lis-Skins: from 852.06 $ listings: 9
in profit
best
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web
Factory New
3 800.00 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)net 3724.00 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 3 800.00 $ listings 3 · you get 3 724.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 993.35 $ (you get 1 733.35)) · buy orders: 177 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 3 800.00 $ listings: 3 on CS.Money: ~ 4 436.00 $ on Lis-Skins: from 4 449.60 $ listings: 7
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Night
Factory New
1 273.75 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)net 1248.27 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 1 273.75 $ listings 6 · you get 1 248.27 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 1 196.02 $ (you get 1 040.01)) · buy orders: 154 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 1 273.75 $ listings: 6 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched
Factory New
850.00 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)net 833.00 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 850.00 $ listings 7 · you get 833.00 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 850.00 $ listings: 7 on Lis-Skins: from 863.59 $ listings: 3
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh
Factory New
not on Steam — above the cap 7.69%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) you get 0.070000 sell now to a buy order: 661.55 $ (you get 575.26)) · buy orders: 126 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on Lis-Skins: from 726.93 $ listings: 9
at a loss
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
Factory New
998.00 $ 7.69%
sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)net 978.04 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 998.00 $ listings 11 · you get 978.04 $ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 765.41 $ (you get 665.57)) · buy orders: 146 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 998.00 $ listings: 11 on Lis-Skins: from 1 016.86 $ listings: 4
in profit
★ Butterfly Knife
no wear
1 854.79 $ 7.69%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ Butterfly Knifenet 1612.86
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 1 484.36 $ (you get 1 290.75)) · buy orders: 3422 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 264.08 $ to your card cheapest lot 1 386.05 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 1 124.58 $ listings: 105 on CS.Money: ~ 1 316.07 $ on Lis-Skins: from 1 166.72 $ listings: 107
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