Knives and gloves · The Dead Hand Collection
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The Dead Hand Collection

Classified → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 10 About the craft Craft 1753602 · ways to build: 1 A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and its pool is large: the chance of a particular item is small, so what counts is the average over the whole pool. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +17 479.97₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 53 508.21₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 70 988.18₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +32.7%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 68%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 153 977.72₴ · profit at most −82 989.53₴ (at most -53.9%) · chance of profit at most 9%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits or more than 10 pieces of one item. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) × 5 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 2781.62 → 6870.61 ₴
P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) × 45 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.90 50726.59 → 147107.11 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
⋯ More
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat — outcomes: 16. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float, — that is 72.7% of the probability. Money from the marketplace is real money you can withdraw, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is -39 231.85 ₴.

Craft variants Craft variants The same collection at other rarity steps: which grade turns into which here. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one Classified → нож или перчатки
+17 479.97 ₴ +32.7% chance of profit 68%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New) · 191 781.77 ₴ · chance 4.5%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 27% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0773
  • 9× P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
Variant 2 Restricted → Classified
+550.22 ₴ +55.6% chance of profit 67%
expensive: AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) · 2 693.54 ₴ · chance 33%
sells slowly
  • 9× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0770
  • 1× MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
Variant 3 Classified → Covert
+1 627.87 ₴ +47.2% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) · 5 238.07 ₴ · chance 50%
float out of reach
  • 8× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1683
  • 2× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0763
Variant 4 Covert → нож или перчатки
+15 384.76 ₴ +27.7% chance of profit 64%
expensive: ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New) · 191 781.77 ₴ · chance 4.5%
продажа ненадёжна marketplace price Price from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real. sells slowly 27% of probability — outcomes selling fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away. float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now. rare inputs The rarest input sells 4 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 5× Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0135

What to buy Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 chains · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one; 50 pcs needed, and about 3 sell per day — buying will take 17 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5
P250 | Kintsugi
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0773
2 781.62 ₴
at 556.32
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details1 per contract, for each of the 5 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.077339f′ (normalized) 0.077339wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 279 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~0, new ~0.0 per day
×45
P250 | Kintsugi
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0064
50 726.59 ₴
at 1 127.26
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase details9 per contract, for each of the 5 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.006421f′ (normalized) 0.006421wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 84 · good ≈ 17
on the market with this float, usually ~17, new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 3 074.92 ₴
50
buy
Classified
5
5 contracts
Covert
1
1 contract
knife or gloves

Craft on only from AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New), Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 11 120.69 ₴.

Set · 50 pcs 53 508.21 ₴ +17 479.97 (+32.7%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.013513414 all outcomes come out at 0.070000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

Chain steps 22 outcomes How the chain goes All steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling. Finish in the chain builder — with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.

1

Classified → Covert

5 contracts of 10 · 5 items drop
craft on
AWP | Queen's Gambit
Factory New
12 200.08 ₴ 50%
Steam AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New)fetches 10 608.76, no more than the replacement you get 0.0135
craft on
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
Factory New
10 857.76 ₴ 50%
Steam Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)fetches 9 441.53, no more than the replacement you get 0.0135
2

Covert → нож или перчатки

1 contract of 5 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
  • Profitable outcome 64%
  • Losing outcome 23%
  • About break-even 14%
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane
Factory New
59 544.90 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Factory New)net 58354.00 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 59 544.90 ₴ listings 4 · you get 58 354.00 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 44 734.94 ₴ (you get 38 899.94)) · buy orders: 27 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 59 544.90 ₴ listings: 4 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers
Factory New
70 036.16 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers (Factory New)net 68635.44 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 70 036.16 ₴ listings 7 · you get 68 635.44 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 70 036.16 ₴ listings: 7 on Lis-Skins: from 68 470.15 ₴ listings: 6
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists
Factory New
77 159.57 ₴ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Factory New)net 67095.27 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 32 852.22 ₴ (you get 28 567.15)) · buy orders: 31 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 47 304.94 ₴ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 1 lots — too few, no price
about break-even
★ Driver Gloves | Garden
Factory New
53 547.01 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Factory New)net 52476.06 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 53 547.01 ₴ listings 3 · you get 52 476.06 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 53 547.01 ₴ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 56 058.74 ₴ listings: 4
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters
Factory New
66 023.23 ₴ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Factory New)net 57411.50 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 26 281.27 ₴ (you get 22 853.28)) · buy orders: 53 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 51 616.98 ₴ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 56 061.42 ₴ listings: 3
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill
Factory New
42 181.51 ₴ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Factory New)net 36679.57 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 24 461.96 ₴ listings: 5
at a loss
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha
Factory New
53 865.80 ₴ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Factory New)net 46839.83 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 24 675.36 ₴ (you get 21 456.84)) · buy orders: 28 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 32 468.43 ₴ listings: 9 on Lis-Skins: from 35 038.50 ₴ listings: 3
in profit
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser
Factory New
82 766.26 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Factory New)net 81110.93 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 82 766.26 ₴ listings 11 · you get 81 110.93 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 73 902.34 ₴ (you get 64 262.90)) · buy orders: 7 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 82 766.26 ₴ listings: 11 on Lis-Skins: from 73 515.15 ₴ listings: 5
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam
Factory New
62 758.62 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Factory New)net 61503.44 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 62 758.62 ₴ listings 8 · you get 61 503.44 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 63 747.79 ₴ (you get 55 432.86)) · buy orders: 16 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 62 758.62 ₴ listings: 8 on Lis-Skins: from 90 091.83 ₴ listings: 3
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser
Factory New
71 366.09 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Factory New)net 69938.76 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 71 366.09 ₴ listings 12 · you get 69 938.76 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 71 366.09 ₴ listings: 12 on Lis-Skins: from 77 084.35 ₴ listings: 11
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook
Factory New
67 281.61 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Factory New)net 65935.97 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 67 281.61 ₴ listings 5 · you get 65 935.97 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 53 683.43 ₴ (you get 46 681.24)) · buy orders: 58 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 67 281.61 ₴ listings: 5 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
about break-even
★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield
Factory New
59 567.83 ₴ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield (Factory New)net 51798.12 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 34 893.05 ₴ (you get 30 341.78)) · buy orders: 24 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 39 947.06 ₴ listings: 5 Lis-Skins: 2 lots — too few, no price
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers
Factory New
194 399.42 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)net 190511.43 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 194 399.42 ₴ listings 8 · you get 190 511.43 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 194 399.42 ₴ listings: 8 on Lis-Skins: from 216 212.75 ₴ listings: 7
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst
Factory New
63 788.26 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New)net 62512.50 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 63 788.26 ₴ listings 4 · you get 62 512.50 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 35 787.45 ₴ (you get 31 119.52)) · buy orders: 21 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 63 788.26 ₴ listings: 4 on Lis-Skins: from 56 217.62 ₴ listings: 3
in profit
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell
Factory New
75 524.62 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Factory New)net 74014.13 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 75 524.62 ₴ listings 6 · you get 74 014.13 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 75 524.62 ₴ listings: 6 on Lis-Skins: from 72 066.28 ₴ listings: 6
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork
Factory New
71 814.93 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)net 70378.63 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 71 814.93 ₴ listings 5 · you get 70 378.63 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 71 814.93 ₴ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 75 244.54 ₴ listings: 9
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty
Factory New
47 775.78 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Factory New)net 46820.26 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 47 775.78 ₴ listings 4 · you get 46 820.26 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 40 260.94 ₴ (you get 35 009.51)) · buy orders: 18 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 47 775.78 ₴ listings: 4 on Lis-Skins: from 50 091.36 ₴ listings: 3
at a loss
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze
Factory New
39 273.79 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New)net 38488.31 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 39 273.79 ₴ listings 7 · you get 38 488.31 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 39 273.79 ₴ listings: 7 on Lis-Skins: from 39 640.49 ₴ listings: 6
at a loss
worst
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe
Factory New
34 962.20 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Factory New)net 34262.95 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 34 962.20 ₴ listings 3 · you get 34 262.95 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 34 177.53 ₴ (you get 29 719.59)) · buy orders: 24 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 34 962.20 ₴ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 39 705.58 ₴ listings: 3
about break-even
★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer
Factory New
62 394.07 ₴ 4.55%
price without deals
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Factory New)net 54255.71 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 53 683.43 ₴ (you get 46 681.24)) · buy orders: 34 Market.CSGO: 1 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 40 351.01 ₴ listings: 6 on Lis-Skins: from 52 469.78 ₴ listings: 5
in profit
best
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent
Factory New
195 695.68 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New)net 191781.77 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 195 695.68 ₴ listings 15 · you get 191 781.77 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 89 470.38 ₴ (you get 77 800.33)) · buy orders: 49 Market.CSGO: 2 lots — too few, no price on CSFloat: from 195 695.68 ₴ listings: 15 on Lis-Skins: from 214 057.86 ₴ listings: 22
in profit
★ Sport Gloves | Occult
Factory New
82 587.17 ₴ 4.55%
sell on CSFloat
Steam ★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Factory New)net 80935.42 you get 0.070000 no price on Steam — listing on CSFloat from 82 587.17 ₴ listings 8 · you get 80 935.42 ₴ (2.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern sell now to a buy order: 86 286.12 ₴ (you get 75 031.41)) · buy orders: 14 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 82 587.17 ₴ listings: 8 on Lis-Skins: from 86 286.09 ₴ listings: 20
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