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The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +2 360.79₽

Invest 25 249.39₽

Average return 27 610.18₽

ROI +9.3%

Chance of profit 10%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 57 756.25₽ · profit at most −30 146.07₽ (−52.2%) · chance of profit at most 10%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 15 799.64 → 34 127.22 ₽

P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) × 8 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 7 482.72 → 19 380.24 ₽

P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 1 967.03 → 4 248.78 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat, outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float. They account for 10.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace can be withdrawn, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is −10 958.01 ₽.

+ a third collection

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (by listings)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

15 799.64 ₽

at 15 799.64

souvenirSteam

×8

P90 | Deathgaze

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

7 482.72 ₽

at 935.34

Steam

×1

P90 | Deathgaze

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

1 967.03 ₽

at 1 967.03

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 25 249.39 ₽ +2 360.79 (+9.3%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 10%
Losing outcome 90%

at a loss

AWP | Queen's Gambit

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 223.38 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15 299.04 ₽ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

135 906.11 ₽ 10.00%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Prisma Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection Variant 3 The Genesis Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection Variant 4 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection Variant 5 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection Variant 6 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +236.18 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 594.76 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Dust 2 Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build