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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +4 604.32₸

Invest 8 106.36₸

Average return 12 710.68₸

ROI +56.8%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 20 246.12 ₸, profit at most −7 535.50 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1 392.15 ₸

at 1 392.15

souvenirSteam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1606

350.48 ₸

at 350.48

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6 363.73 ₸

at 795.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8 106.36 ₸ +4 604.32 (+56.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 527 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

6 960.73 ₸

at 1 392.15

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

3 773.57 ₸

at 1 886.79

souvenirSteam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

2 386.40 ₸

at 795.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13 120.71 ₸ +2 192.80 (+16.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −5 374 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

5 499.31 ₸

at 1 374.83

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

1 886.79 ₸

at 1 886.79

souvenirSteam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

3 977.33 ₸

at 795.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 363.43 ₸ +3 082.45 (+27.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 120 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

2 749.66 ₸

at 1 374.83

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

2 784.29 ₸

at 1 392.15

souvenirSteam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

4 772.80 ₸

at 795.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 306.75 ₸ +3 705.32 (+36.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −11 730 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

6 874.14 ₸

at 1 374.83

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

5 660.36 ₸

at 1 886.79

souvenirSteam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1 590.93 ₸

at 795.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14 125.44 ₸ +1 621.88 (+11.5%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

3 598.68 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 977.75 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

12 525.04 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

1 372.10 ₸ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

19 064.15 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

19 397.63 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.032374

18 859.70 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 904.96 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 159.68 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2060478 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 677.97₸ · invest 8 401.73₸
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.160424 instead of 0.160619; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074169 instead of 0.074247
Craft 2086827 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 335.24₸ · invest 6 876.55₸
sells slowly rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2071434 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 325.31₸ · invest 6 854.42₸
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161374 instead of 0.160619; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074549 instead of 0.074247

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build