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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +336.59₽

Invest 2 184.66₽

Average return 2 521.25₽

ROI +15.4%

Chance of profit 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 5 441.39₽ · profit at most −2 920.14₽ (−53.7%) · chance of profit at most 30%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.51 1 894.26 → 4 754.59 ₽

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) × 4 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 290.40 → 686.80 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

1 894.26 ₽

at 315.71

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

290.40 ₽

at 72.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 184.66 ₽ +336.59 (+15.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

691.74 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

699.54 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

688.47 ₽ 15.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Heirloom

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 690.40 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

1 451.80 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

6 643.88 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −71.67 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +301.74 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Harlequin Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2060096 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Ascent Collection · profit 389.01₽ · invest 2 198.90₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164330 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060099 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Boreal Collection · profit 373.14₽ · invest 2 027.54₽
sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164330 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060329 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 366.08₽ · invest 2 111.02₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161754 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060373 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 364.02₽ · invest 2 160.86₽
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163778 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060330 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 354.92₽ · invest 1 849.50₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): 5 pcs instead of 6; CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171981 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060178 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 347.42₽ · invest 1 976.26₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164181 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2056568 · The Achroma Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 339.32₽ · invest 2 154.06₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164554 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060276 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 331.57₽ · invest 1 698.28₽
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): 4 pcs instead of 6; CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162688 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060449 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 330.93₽ · invest 2 039.70₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163778 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060331 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 329.05₽ · invest 2 111.02₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163778 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060455 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 324.30₽ · invest 2 070.02₽
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163778 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060277 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 323.29₽ · invest 2 202.78₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163778 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060297 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 313.85₽ · invest 1 999.70₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164746 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060241 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 313.81₽ · invest 2 078.78₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161750 instead of 0.164752
Craft 2060208 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 313.13₽ · invest 2 007.74₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
Craft 2060149 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 312.03₽ · invest 2 026.26₽
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
Craft 2060212 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 293.97₽ · invest 1 842.18₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): 5 pcs instead of 6; CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162888 instead of 0.164752

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Harlequin Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build