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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +875.18₽

Invest 1 571.84₽

Average return 2 447.02₽

ROI +55.7%

Chance of profit 50%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 907.12₽ · profit at most −1 460.10₽ (−37.4%) · chance of profit at most 28%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 315.71 → 681.93 ₽

UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 65.57 → 141.63 ₽

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 8 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 1 190.56 → 3 083.55 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

315.71 ₽

at 315.71

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1604

65.57 ₽

at 65.57

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1 190.56 ₽

at 148.82

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 571.84 ₽ +875.18 (+55.7%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×5

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

1 578.55 ₽

at 315.71

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

446.46 ₽

at 148.82

Steam

×2

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

382.48 ₽

at 191.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 407.49 ₽ +640.33 (+26.6%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

673.26 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 292.16 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

2 343.25 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

256.70 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

688.47 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Heirloom

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 690.40 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

1 451.80 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

6 643.88 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +351.66 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +615.74 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2054683 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 861.40₽ · invest 1 516.58₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear) instead of CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.160619 instead of 0.160424; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074247 instead of 0.074169
Craft 2086827 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 811.06₽ · invest 1 286.50₽
sells slowly rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear) instead of CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.160619 instead of 0.160424; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074247 instead of 0.074169
Craft 2071434 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 809.20₽ · invest 1 282.36₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested); UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161374 instead of 0.160424; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074549 instead of 0.074169

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build