The Harlequin Collection + The Train Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft was not checked against the market at night (only the best are) or there were not enough listings. The numbers below are at average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will count by live listings right now.

Average profit +590.21₸

Invest 1 175.35₸

Average return 1 765.56₸

ROI +50.2%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 898.20₸ · profit at most −1 132.64₸ (−39.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) × 8 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 835.98 → 2 165.20 ₸

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 210.28 → 454.20 ₸

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 129.09 → 278.83 ₸

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×8

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1615

835.98 ₸

at 104.50

Steam

×1

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

210.28 ₸

at 210.28

Steam

×1

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

129.09 ₸

at 129.09

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 175.35 ₸ +590.21 (+50.2%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

best

AWP | Exothermic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

2 541.36 ₸ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

1 930.83 ₸ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Tec-9 | Red Quartz

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.085714

179.22 ₸ 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Harlequin Collection + The Train Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +391.43 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +505.81 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Harlequin Collection and The Train Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2072932 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 625.34₸ · invest 1 155.84₸
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162277 instead of 0.161501; Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074270 instead of 0.074000
Craft 2081314 · The Harlequin Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 620.19₸ · invest 1 150.65₸
Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2076967 · The Gallery Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 609.43₸ · invest 1 197.16₸
USP-S | 27 (Field-Tested) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163315 instead of 0.161501; Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074631 instead of 0.074000
Craft 2081344 · The Harlequin Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 607.02₸ · invest 1 198.12₸
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Morris (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165685 instead of 0.161501; Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075455 instead of 0.074000
Craft 2052213 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 601.50₸ · invest 1 272.47₸
P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164426 instead of 0.161501; Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075017 instead of 0.074000

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Harlequin Collection + The Train Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build