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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +395.05₴

Invest 806.37₴

Average return 1 201.42₴

ROI +49.0%

Chance of profit 50%

With float: invest at least 2 075.07 ₴, profit at most −873.65 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

709.17 ₴

at 78.80

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

97.21 ₴

at 97.21

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 806.37 ₴ +395.05 (+49.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

39.53 ₴

at 39.53

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

393.98 ₴

at 78.80

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

115.43 ₴

at 115.43

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

444.76 ₴

at 148.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 993.70 ₴ +48.94 (+4.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

39.53 ₴

at 39.53

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

472.78 ₴

at 78.80

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

115.43 ₴

at 115.43

Steam

×2

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

296.51 ₴

at 148.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 924.24 ₴ +171.33 (+18.5%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

356.47 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

3 861.01 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

1 240.69 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

311.86 ₴ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.046599

1 207.88 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

459.75 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +134.23 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +250.33 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2086020 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 433.11₴ · invest 736.94₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) instead of G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074518 instead of 0.074035
Craft 2089775 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 421.34₴ · invest 838.96₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) instead of G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075645 instead of 0.074035

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build