to all crafts

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +94 173.54₸

Invest 235 856.19₸

Average return 330 029.73₸

ROI +39.9%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 571 680.14₸ · profit at most −241 650.35₸ (−42.3%) · chance of profit at most 45%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) × 3 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 35 602.49 → 80 461.63 ₸

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) × 6 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.51 167 629.96 → 420 751.21 ₸

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) × 1 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 32 623.74 → 70 467.28 ₸

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat, outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float. They account for 45.0% of the probability. Money from the marketplace can be withdrawn, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is −185 806.79 ₸.

+ a third collection

How to build

12% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 12% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

35 602.49 ₸

at 11 867.50

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

167 629.96 ₸

at 27 938.33

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0261

32 623.74 ₸

at 32 623.74

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 235 856.19 ₸ +94 173.54 (+39.9%)

11% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 11% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0791

35 602.49 ₸

at 11 867.50

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0080

139 691.64 ₸

at 27 938.33

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0257

65 247.48 ₸

at 32 623.74

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 240 541.61 ₸ +61 503.24 (+25.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −27 465 ₸

11% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 11% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0785

35 602.49 ₸

at 11 867.50

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

111 753.31 ₸

at 27 938.33

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0253

97 871.22 ₸

at 32 623.74

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 245 227.02 ₸ +28 832.95 (+11.8%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

634 876.09 ₸ 45.00%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental

Factory New

float up to 0.018461

107 928.36 ₸ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray

Factory New

float up to 0.009230

89 890.56 ₸ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +82 468.21 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +91 229.21 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2060486 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 100 251.42₸ · invest 231 678.95₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077737 instead of 0.079873; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New): float at most 0.006770 instead of 0.008638
Craft 2082576 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 94 796.95₸ · invest 256 568.34₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079359 instead of 0.079873; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New): float at most 0.008189 instead of 0.008638

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build