Knives and gloves · The Wildfire Collection
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The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5 About the craft Craft 2096829 · ways to build: 4 StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, which differs from the price of the normal item. A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and it has many outcomes: the chance of a particular item is therefore small, and what counts is the average over all outcomes. The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. −16 734.80₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the needed wear, regardless of float. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase. 33 304.84₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 16 570.04₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. −50.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 6%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 73 741.57₽ · profit at most −57 171.53₽ (−77.5%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 18 031.17 → 40 750.44 ₽
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 9 293.67 → 20 074.33 ₽
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 5 980.00 → 12 916.80 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
The gain is understated. 2 outcome has no price on Steam: it is above its cap and is not listed on the market. It counts as zero in the calculation and accounts for 7.7% of the probability.
Sell on a marketplace: Market.CSGO, outcomes: 1. They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float. They account for 1.5% of the probability. Money from the marketplace can be withdrawn, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is −16 848.80 ₽.
+ a third collection

How to build Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

18% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)
×3
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0845
18 031.17 ₽
at 6 010.39
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.084556f′ (normalized) 0.132119wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 15 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 24 · from 4 297.93 ₽ (float 0.0724) · craft not before 18.10 · data 11.10 15:54 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0127
9 293.67 ₽
at 9 293.67
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.012736f′ (normalized) 0.019901wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 21 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~1, new listings per day: fewer than one, cheapest usually 37 540.17 ₽ · little data, days: 1
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 20) · data 11.10 15:54 MSK
×1
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1918
5 980.00 ₽
at 5 980.00
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.191849f′ (normalized) 0.191849wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 24 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 4 of 40 · from 6 308.10 ₽ (float 0.1804) · craft not before 18.10 · data 11.10 15:54 MSK
Set · 5 pcs 33 304.84 ₽ −16 734.80 (−50.2%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.121621522 outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000 «No higher than» is a guarantee. Take every item with the float at the upper limit and you get exactly the result shown.

What you get 26 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 6%
  • Losing outcome 80%
  • About break-even 6%
  • Above the Steam cap 8%
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade
Factory New
float up to 0.009729
23 756.32 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 20 657.67 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 22 749.37 ₽ (you get 19 782.06 ₽)) · buy orders: 424 sell on Market.CSGO: 20 975.78 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 22 999.76 · lots 3 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 19 989.67 ₽ listings: 12 on CS.Money: ~ 20 723.96 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 21 566.06 ₽ listings: 8
in profit
best
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
float up to 0.040405
58 436.41 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 50 814.27 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 27 860.34 ₽ (you get 24 226.38 ₽)) · buy orders: 222 sell on Market.CSGO: 33 652.80 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 36 900.00 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 32 041.36 ₽ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 36 302.79 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.121621
29 290.61 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)net 25 470.10 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.121621
16 530.74 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)net 14 374.56 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 435.57 ₽ (you get 9 943.97 ₽)) · buy orders: 111 sell on Market.CSGO: 12 426.39 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 13 625.43 · lots 3 CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price on Lis-Skins: from 11 788.54 ₽ listings: 3
about break-even
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.121621
36 966.07 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)net 32 144.41 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 21 410.01 ₽ (you get 18 617.40 ₽)) · buy orders: 121 not listed on Market.CSGO right now on CSFloat: from 36 373.25 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
9 502.96 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)net 8 263.44 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 270.16 ₽ (you get 5 452.31 ₽)) · buy orders: 126 Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price CSFloat: 1 listings, too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
11 999.99 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)net 10 434.77 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 6 534.82 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 165.38 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 11 713.84 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 6 624.74 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
17 314.47 ₽ 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)net 15 056.06 ₽ sells 1 a week sell now to a buy order: 15 741.72 ₽ (you get 13 688.45 ₽)) · buy orders: 114 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 415.99 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 999.99 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 14 855.58 ₽ listings: 6 on Lis-Skins: from 15 761.35 ₽ listings: 6
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
17 816.65 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)net 15 492.74 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 664.87 ₽ (you get 11 882.49 ₽)) · buy orders: 82 Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price on CSFloat: from 18 626.35 ₽ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
12 828.34 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)net 11 155.08 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 980.77 ₽ (you get 6 939.80 ₽)) · buy orders: 97 not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
8 171.94 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)net 7 106.03 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 6 549.32 ₽ (you get 5 695.06 ₽)) · buy orders: 82 Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price on CSFloat: from 6 365.83 ₽ listings: 3 Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) sell now to a buy order: 9 165.68 ₽ (you get 7 970.15 ₽)) · buy orders: 64 Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price on CS.Money: ~ 6 730.00 ₽ Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife
no wear
12 735.56 ₽ 6.15%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knifenet 11 074.40 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 11 491.00 ₽ (you get 9 992.17 ₽)) · buy orders: 192 sell on Market.CSGO: 15 270.81 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 16 744.32 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 9 317.42 ₽ listings: 3 on Lis-Skins: from 9 841.18 ₽ listings: 31
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade
Factory New
float up to 0.009729
28 508.89 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)net 24 790.34 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 26 315.70 ₽ (you get 22 883.21 ₽)) · buy orders: 259 sell on Market.CSGO: 24 284.18 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 26 627.40 · lots 3 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 21 222.26 ₽ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 23 393.72 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 24 607.63 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Factory New
float up to 0.040405
29 164.74 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)net 25 360.64 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 24 852.96 ₽ (you get 21 611.26 ₽)) · buy orders: 255 Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price on CSFloat: from 21 239.23 ₽ listings: 7 on CS.Money: ~ 21 001.54 ₽ Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.121621
25 657.79 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)net 22 311.12 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 392.08 ₽ (you get 11 645.28 ₽)) · buy orders: 101 Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.121621
10 884.38 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)net 9 464.68 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 9 741.81 ₽ (you get 8 471.13 ₽)) · buy orders: 111 Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.121621
29 553.62 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)net 25 698.80 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 812.46 ₽ (you get 16 358.66 ₽)) · buy orders: 143 Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price on CSFloat: from 20 373.37 ₽ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 16 599.20 ₽ Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
10 635.35 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)net 9 248.13 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 048.06 ₽ (you get 6 998.31 ₽)) · buy orders: 115 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 830.88 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 490.00 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 6 057.68 ₽ listings: 4 Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
15 680.55 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)net 13 635.26 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 165.05 ₽ (you get 6 230.47 ₽)) · buy orders: 97 sell on Market.CSGO: 8 905.75 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 9 765.08 · lots 5 on CSFloat: from 8 418.44 ₽ listings: 5 Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%
pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)The Falchion Collection no buy orders not listed on Market.CSGO right now CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price on CS.Money: ~ 18 100.89 ₽ Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
13 779.09 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)net 11 981.82 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 828.12 ₽ (you get 7 676.62 ₽)) · buy orders: 85 Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price on CSFloat: from 10 611.13 ₽ listings: 6 on Lis-Skins: from 10 027.94 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
worst
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
7 800.00 ₽ 1.54%
sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)net 7 410.00 ₽The Falchion Collection no price on Steam, listing on Market.CSGO from 7 800.00 ₽ listings 5 · you get 7 410.00 ₽ (5.0% fee from the price) ignoring float and pattern no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 11 855.99 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 12 999.99 · lots 3 on CSFloat: from 9 227.44 ₽ listings: 3
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
12 118.87 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)net 10 538.15 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 7 211.57 ₽ (you get 6 270.93 ₽)) · buy orders: 103 sell on Market.CSGO: 6 475.18 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 7 099.98 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 6 196.90 ₽ listings: 5 on Lis-Skins: from 7 567.86 ₽ listings: 4
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.149999
15 936.04 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)net 13 857.43 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 8 347.01 ₽ (you get 7 258.26 ₽)) · buy orders: 99 sell on Market.CSGO: 8 295.38 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 9 095.82 · lots 3 CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife
no wear
16 769.49 ₽ 1.54%
price without deals pricier variants exist
Steam ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knifenet 14 582.17 ₽The Falchion Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 13 228.31 ₽ (you get 11 502.87 ₽)) · buy orders: 264 sell on Market.CSGO: 11 795.66 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 12 933.84 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 11 235.91 ₽ listings: 10 on CS.Money: ~ 12 804.66 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 12 024.53 ₽ listings: 19

Craft variants Craft variants One of this craft's two collections paired with another collection, same rarity. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection
Variant 2 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection
Chains Pretty floats Interesting Cases Favorites From inventory Proven in practice How crafts work