The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −197.11$

Invest 392.28$

Average return 195.17$

ROI −50.2%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 868.57 $, profit at most −673.40 $

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Sell on Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −198.45 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0845

212.38 $

at 70.79

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0127

109.47 $

at 109.47

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1918

70.44 $

at 70.44

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 392.28 $ −197.11 (−50.2%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 6%
Losing outcome 80%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

279.81 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

688.29 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

345.00 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

194.71 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

435.41 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

111.93 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

141.34 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

203.94 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

209.85 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

151.10 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

96.25 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

150.01 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

335.79 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

343.52 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

302.21 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

128.20 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

348.10 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

125.27 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

184.69 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

162.30 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

91.87 $ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

142.74 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

187.70 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

197.52 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 212.38 → 479.98 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 109.47 → 236.45 $

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 70.44 → 152.14 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −213.20 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −198.28 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2097418 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit −185.94$ · invest 368.12$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077471 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.006537 instead of 0.012736
Craft 2097423 · The Gallery Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −185.94$ · invest 368.12$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077471 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.006537 instead of 0.012736
Craft 2098800 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −192.74$ · invest 420.20$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076756 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005912 instead of 0.012736
Craft 2098809 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −192.74$ · invest 420.20$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076756 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005912 instead of 0.012736
Craft 2098801 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −193.40$ · invest 420.20$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 2098810 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −193.40$ · invest 420.20$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 2099730 · The Wildfire Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit −196.40$ · invest 396.04$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 2099735 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −196.40$ · invest 396.04$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 2096836 · The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −197.11$ · invest 392.28$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2096403 · The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −202.47$ · invest 431.85$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.081700 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.010237 instead of 0.012736
Craft 2096412 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −202.47$ · invest 431.85$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.081700 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.010237 instead of 0.012736

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build