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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Average profit +826.59₽

Invest 704.20₽

Average return 1 530.79₽

ROI +117.4%

Chance of profit 80%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 608.03₽ · profit at most −77.24₽ (−4.8%) · chance of profit at most 40%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 22.24 → 49.15 ₽

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) × 6 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.51 172.50 → 432.97 ₽

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 509.46 → 1 125.91 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 ₽

+ a third collection

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Souvenir P250 | Drought

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

22.24 ₽

at 11.12

souvenirSteam

×6

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

172.50 ₽

at 28.75

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0605

509.46 ₽

at 254.73

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 704.20 ₽ +826.59 (+117.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −76 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Souvenir P250 | Drought

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

33.36 ₽

at 11.12

souvenirSteam

×5

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

143.75 ₽

at 28.75

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Factory New

buy 0.0600–0.0606

509.46 ₽

at 254.73

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 686.57 ₽ +668.87 (+97.4%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 472.16 ₽ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 810.07 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Grassland

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 140.88 ₽ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Gunsmoke

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 231.72 ₽ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

116.61 ₽ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Dual Berettas | Drift Wood

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

131.60 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | CaliCamo

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

207.61 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Verdant Growth

Factory New

float up to 0.006351

133.02 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

Variant 2 The Train Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Safehouse Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 5 The Lake Collection instead of The Overpass Collection Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +489.44 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +670.56 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2135062 · The Overpass Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 921.26₽ · invest 447.63₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074272 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060534 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2101789 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 898.88₽ · invest 439.47₽
sells slowly rare inputs

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074272 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060534 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2108683 · The Anubis Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 890.88₽ · invest 491.64₽
sells slowly rare inputs

AUG | Snake Pit (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074142 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060517 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2130629 · The Harlequin Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 890.85₽ · invest 435.93₽
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074272 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060534 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2110912 · The Ascent Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 887.80₽ · invest 435.87₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074272 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060534 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2112203 · The Boreal Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 887.20₽ · invest 435.66₽
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Sage Camo (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074272 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060534 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2135012 · The Overpass Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 885.55₽ · invest 435.33₽
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074360 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): 1 pcs instead of 2; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060545 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2103391 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 823.51₽ · invest 715.42₽
profit on prices without salesat least −19 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Parched (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074497 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060562 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2106794 · The Achroma Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 820.46₽ · invest 687.44₽
profit on prices without salesat least −22 ₽ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Sans Comic (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074524 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060565 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2102514 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 819.05₽ · invest 691.36₽
profit on prices without salesat least −24 ₽ rare inputs

P250 | Facility Draft (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074524 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060565 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2105885 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 815.04₽ · invest 762.02₽
profit on prices without salesat least −69 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074524 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060565 instead of 0.060543
Craft 2130953 · The Havoc Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 754.69₽ · invest 879.76₽
profit on prices without salesat least −163 ₽ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074285 instead of 0.074350; Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New): float at most 0.060535 instead of 0.060543

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build