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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Average profit +82.75₽

Invest 163.07₽

Average return 245.82₽

ROI +50.7%

Chance of profit 90%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 405.21₽ · profit at most −159.39₽ (−39.3%) · chance of profit at most 22%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 11.12 → 24.02 ₽

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) × 8 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 123.20 → 319.09 ₽

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) × 1 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 28.75 → 62.10 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Souvenir P250 | Drought

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

11.12 ₽

at 11.12

souvenirSteam

×8

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1691

123.20 ₽

at 15.40

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

28.75 ₽

at 28.75

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 163.07 ₽ +82.75 (+50.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −8 ₽

10% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 10% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×8

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

54.08 ₽

at 6.76

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir P250 | Drought

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

11.12 ₽

at 11.12

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1741

15.40 ₽

at 15.40

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 80.60 ₽ +19.49 (+24.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −0 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0772

47.32 ₽

at 6.76

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir P250 | Drought

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

11.12 ₽

at 11.12

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1709

30.80 ₽

at 15.40

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 89.24 ₽ +29.07 (+32.6%)

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

40.56 ₽

at 6.76

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir P250 | Drought

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

11.12 ₽

at 11.12

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1684

46.20 ₽

at 15.40

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 97.88 ₽ +38.64 (+39.5%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 10%

in profit

Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

296.82 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

496.04 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Grassland

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

208.86 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Gunsmoke

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

212.84 ₽ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Factory New

float up to 0.060810

116.61 ₽ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Dual Berettas | Drift Wood

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.072972

57.50 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | CaliCamo

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.072972

69.50 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Verdant Growth

Factory New

float up to 0.057162

133.02 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

Variant 2 The Train Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Safehouse Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 5 The Lake Collection instead of The Overpass Collection Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +27.05 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +63.63 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2132138 · The Italy Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 83.24₽ · invest 155.95₽
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168399 instead of 0.169187; Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076399 instead of 0.076674
Craft 2111659 · The Bank Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 83.17₽ · invest 155.73₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168399 instead of 0.169187; Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076399 instead of 0.076674
Craft 2102515 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 82.88₽ · invest 156.65₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Facility Draft (Factory New) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169321 instead of 0.169187; Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076720 instead of 0.076674
Craft 2108684 · The Anubis Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 79.27₽ · invest 164.00₽
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Submerged (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New); Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164123 instead of 0.169187; Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074912 instead of 0.076674

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build