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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +17.41$

Invest 31.06$

Average return 48.47$

ROI +56.0%

Chance of profit 46%

With float: invest at least 79.80 $, profit at most −31.33 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −29 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

4.02 $

at 4.02

souvenirSteam

×9

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0857

27.04 $

at 3.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 31.06 $ +17.41 (+56.0%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 54%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17.19 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

177.95 $ 18.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.002702

45.58 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10.67 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Virus

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22.34 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

39.33 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

113.11 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.004999

41.56 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Arabesque Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +9.41 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +15.01 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 31 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2139282 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.98$ · invest 28.73$
profit on prices without salesat least −26 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083967 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2108169 · The Ancient Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.90$ · invest 31.19$
profit on prices without salesat least −27 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085218 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2103667 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.38$ · invest 36.47$
profit on prices without salesat least −29 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2138448 · The Shattered Web Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.21$ · invest 29.16$
profit on prices without salesat least −27 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084362 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2101969 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.20$ · invest 27.75$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083982 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2137966 · The Safehouse Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.17$ · invest 27.75$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2102769 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.11$ · invest 28.88$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2135560 · The Phoenix Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.05$ · invest 27.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −26 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084620 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2124622 · The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.03$ · invest 27.76$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2128056 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 16.02$ · invest 27.91$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2131582 · The Horizon Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.91$ · invest 27.95$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2134990 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.88$ · invest 27.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2116703 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.87$ · invest 27.36$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084729 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2138636 · The Snakebite Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.87$ · invest 27.53$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2118597 · The Chroma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.84$ · invest 27.92$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2111203 · The Ascent Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.83$ · invest 27.92$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2117745 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.83$ · invest 27.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085786 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2137708 · The Revolver Case Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.83$ · invest 27.71$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2136668 · The Radiant Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.80$ · invest 27.78$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2128726 · The Gamma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.80$ · invest 27.56$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084725 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2112506 · The Boreal Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.78$ · invest 27.42$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2138257 · The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.75$ · invest 28.04$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2136363 · The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.74$ · invest 28.29$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Off World (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085936 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2130920 · The Harlequin Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.71$ · invest 27.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2132902 · The Kilowatt Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.71$ · invest 27.34$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085911 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2126368 · The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.70$ · invest 27.38$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085912 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2123333 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.69$ · invest 27.32$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085829 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2121161 · The Danger Zone Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.69$ · invest 27.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −26 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084891 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2127333 · The Gallery Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.69$ · invest 27.72$
profit on prices without salesat least −26 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085913 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2135940 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.68$ · invest 27.55$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085757
Craft 2107047 · The Achroma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 15.67$ · invest 27.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −26 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085883 instead of 0.085757

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build