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The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +98.32₴

Invest 293.84₴

Average return 392.17₴

ROI +33.5%

Chance of profit 54%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 744.95₴ · profit at most −352.79₴ (−47.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 28.93 → 62.49 ₴

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 8 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 256.39 → 664.06 ₴

P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 8.52 → 18.40 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −9 ₴

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

28.93 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

256.39 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×1

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

8.52 ₴

at 8.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 293.84 ₴ +98.32 (+33.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

224.34 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

17.04 ₴

at 8.52

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

14.95 ₴

at 14.95

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 256.33 ₴ +71.80 (+28.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −15 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

192.30 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

17.04 ₴

at 8.52

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

29.89 ₴

at 14.95

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 239.23 ₴ +56.89 (+23.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −18 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

160.25 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

P90 | Freight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

17.04 ₴

at 8.52

Steam

×3

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

44.84 ₴

at 14.95

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 222.13 ₴ +41.97 (+18.9%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 54%
Losing outcome 46%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

276.46 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

837.70 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

407.97 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

229.17 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

687.78 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Galil AR | Connexion

Factory New

float up to 0.015686

99.12 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Allure

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

143.38 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAG-7 | Monster Call

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

129.10 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

float up to 0.015686

83.67 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Tec-9 | Brother

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

142.75 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +31.74 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +80.04 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Fracture Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2124487 · The Falchion Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 109.24₴ · invest 307.89₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2124291 · The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 106.70₴ · invest 306.24₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2121232 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 106.28₴ · invest 295.90₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2124393 · The Falchion Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 105.57₴ · invest 301.13₴
profit on prices without salesat least −5 ₴ rare inputs

SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2123860 · The Falchion Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 105.52₴ · invest 296.14₴
profit on prices without salesat least −2 ₴ rare inputs

P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2123767 · The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 101.56₴ · invest 305.57₴
profit on prices without salesat least −15 ₴ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2115859 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 99.54₴ · invest 299.67₴
profit on prices without salesat least −15 ₴ rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear); Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077308 instead of 0.074673; UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006395 instead of 0.004088
Craft 2123706 · The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 98.74₴ · invest 293.19₴
profit on prices without salesat least −9 ₴ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2123993 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 98.57₴ · invest 292.36₴
profit on prices without salesat least −9 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build