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The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +110.07₴

Invest 214.70₴

Average return 324.77₴

ROI +51.3%

Chance of profit 94%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 549.61₴ · profit at most −224.83₴ (−40.9%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 32.05 → 69.23 ₴

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 182.65 → 480.38 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

32.05 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×9

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

182.65 ₴

at 20.29

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 214.70 ₴ +110.07 (+51.3%)

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

28.93 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

64.10 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×1

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1679

9.91 ₴

at 9.91

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

121.77 ₴

at 20.29

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 224.71 ₴ +68.57 (+30.5%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

28.93 ₴

at 28.93

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

96.15 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

20.08 ₴

at 10.04

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

81.18 ₴

at 20.29

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 226.34 ₴ +51.21 (+22.6%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

64.10 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×1

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1624

9.91 ₴

at 9.91

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

142.06 ₴

at 20.29

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 216.07 ₴ +92.95 (+43.0%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

192.30 ₴

at 32.05

Steam

×3

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

29.74 ₴

at 9.91

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

10.04 ₴

at 10.04

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 232.07 ₴ +13.98 (+6.0%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 94%
Losing outcome 6%

in profit

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

382.03 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

401.15 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.059999

276.46 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.099999

88.78 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.051999

407.97 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.049999

229.17 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.190999

50.31 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +71.87 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +92.94 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Harlequin Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 16 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2130618 · The Harlequin Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 112.62₴ · invest 210.57₴
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076845 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2125698 · The Fracture Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 112.56₴ · invest 197.60₴
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2130788 · The Harlequin Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 112.42₴ · invest 204.50₴
UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076845 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2113468 · The Breakout Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 111.96₴ · invest 207.12₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076646 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130706 · The Harlequin Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 111.83₴ · invest 199.91₴
Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2119008 · The Clutch Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 111.79₴ · invest 200.27₴
SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076921 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2117111 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 110.37₴ · invest 208.12₴
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076877 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130717 · The Harlequin Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 109.90₴ · invest 200.75₴
SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077153 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130514 · The Harlequin Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 109.70₴ · invest 223.49₴
rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076845 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130734 · The Harlequin Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 108.74₴ · invest 212.72₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076845 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130656 · The Harlequin Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 108.37₴ · invest 205.39₴
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075044 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130657 · The Harlequin Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 106.72₴ · invest 205.39₴
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076985 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2130565 · The Harlequin Collection + The Lake Collection · profit 106.18₴ · invest 203.27₴
SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074202 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2118079 · The Chroma Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 105.71₴ · invest 222.18₴
rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076845 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2126526 · The Gallery Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 105.69₴ · invest 213.15₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077090 instead of 0.077088
Craft 2114401 · The CS20 Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 104.57₴ · invest 214.15₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077008 instead of 0.077088

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build