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The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +202.24₽

Invest 583.10₽

Average return 785.34₽

ROI +34.7%

Chance of profit 64%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 515.54₽ · profit at most −730.20₽ (−48.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 9 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 544.77 → 1 432.75 ₽

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 38.33 → 82.79 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 ₽

+ a third collection

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×9

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

544.77 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 583.10 ₽ +202.24 (+34.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −6 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×8

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

484.24 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

72.12 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 594.69 ₽ +174.85 (+29.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −11 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

423.71 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

144.24 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 606.28 ₽ +147.46 (+24.3%)

profit on prices without sales at least −15 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

363.18 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

216.36 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 617.87 ₽ +120.06 (+19.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −30 ₽

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

181.59 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

38.33 ₽

at 38.33

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

432.72 ₽

at 72.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 652.64 ₽ +37.88 (+5.8%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 64%
Losing outcome 36%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

522.14 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

1 582.12 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

770.51 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

432.82 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

1 298.98 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.013725

721.53 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.013725

757.64 ₽ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +73.13 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +166.14 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Harlequin Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2123938 · The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 218.13₽ · invest 589.32₽
profit on prices without salesat least −3 ₽

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004606 instead of 0.006630
Craft 2110658 · The Ascent Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 214.26₽ · invest 583.87₽
sells slowly

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.005379 instead of 0.006630
Craft 2117882 · The Chroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 208.22₽ · invest 591.20₽
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.006630
Craft 2124105 · The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 205.69₽ · invest 574.82₽
sells slowly

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.006630
Craft 2124212 · The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 202.53₽ · invest 580.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 ₽

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.006630
Craft 2124511 · The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 202.47₽ · invest 604.77₽
profit on prices without salesat least −1 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.007111 instead of 0.006630
Craft 2106566 · The Achroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 199.21₽ · invest 575.03₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 ₽

P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006047 instead of 0.006630

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Harlequin Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build