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The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +234.59₽

Invest 602.42₽

Average return 837.01₽

ROI +38.9%

Chance of profit 76%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 433.04₽ · profit at most −596.03₽ (−41.6%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 60.53 → 130.74 ₽

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear) × 6 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.51 310.50 → 779.35 ₽

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) × 3 8% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 231.39 → 522.94 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

60.53 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×6

R8 Revolver | Survivalist

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

310.50 ₽

at 51.75

Steam

×3

Dual Berettas | Shred

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

231.39 ₽

at 77.13

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 602.42 ₽ +234.59 (+38.9%)

10% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 10% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

54.64 ₽

at 54.64

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

302.65 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×4

AUG | Amber Slipstream

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

178.20 ₽

at 44.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 535.49 ₽ +165.27 (+30.9%)

10% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 10% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0780

163.92 ₽

at 54.64

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

242.12 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×3

AUG | Amber Slipstream

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0780

133.65 ₽

at 44.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 539.69 ₽ +133.82 (+24.8%)

10% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 10% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

273.20 ₽

at 54.64

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

181.59 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×2

AUG | Amber Slipstream

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

89.10 ₽

at 44.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 543.89 ₽ +102.37 (+18.8%)

9% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 9% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

382.48 ₽

at 54.64

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

121.06 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×1

AUG | Amber Slipstream

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

44.55 ₽

at 44.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 548.09 ₽ +70.92 (+12.9%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 76%
Losing outcome 24%

at a loss

AWP | PAW

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

655.53 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Eco

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 254.83 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

G3SG1 | High Seas

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

731.29 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Powercore

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

1 000.00 ₽ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Nova | Toy Soldier

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 327.85 ₽ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

522.14 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 582.12 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

770.51 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

432.82 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

95.02 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Horizon Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Horizon Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Horizon Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +80.24 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +196.66 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Horizon Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2131133 · The Horizon Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 242.71₽ · invest 594.61₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076421 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005619 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2116088 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 241.80₽ · invest 568.99₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074982 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.004359 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131395 · The Horizon Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 241.79₽ · invest 583.15₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076421 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005619 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2118083 · The Chroma Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 239.68₽ · invest 616.55₽
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076421 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005619 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2117120 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 238.04₽ · invest 589.98₽
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076449 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005643 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2128149 · The Gamma Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 235.61₽ · invest 585.44₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074838 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.004234 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2112071 · The Boreal Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 234.59₽ · invest 573.37₽
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076544 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005726 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131150 · The Horizon Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 234.56₽ · invest 595.34₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074683 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.004098 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131026 · The Horizon Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 228.12₽ · invest 567.02₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076633 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005804 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2125710 · The Fracture Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 227.36₽ · invest 570.12₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2122548 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 226.70₽ · invest 565.21₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005697 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2120393 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 226.42₽ · invest 576.48₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075148 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.004504 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131173 · The Horizon Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 226.02₽ · invest 584.84₽
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076544 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005726 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131443 · The Horizon Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 223.54₽ · invest 585.83₽
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076421 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005619 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2114412 · The CS20 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 223.53₽ · invest 601.37₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076564 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005744 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131418 · The Horizon Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 222.90₽ · invest 576.80₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076421 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005619 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2113478 · The Breakout Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 222.65₽ · invest 588.09₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076246 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005465 instead of 0.005805
Craft 2131242 · The Horizon Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 220.16₽ · invest 574.49₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2119020 · The Clutch Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 219.99₽ · invest 575.16₽
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076488 instead of 0.076635; Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New): float at most 0.005677 instead of 0.005805

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Horizon Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build