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The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +345.43₽

Invest 800.34₽

Average return 1 145.77₽

ROI +43.2%

Chance of profit 72%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 983.45₽ · profit at most −837.67₽ (−42.2%) · chance of profit at most 22%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) × 1 7% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 66.28 → 143.16 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested) × 2 7% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 92.86 → 205.22 ₽

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) × 7 7% of the wear range fits at least ×2.55 641.20 → 1 635.06 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

66.28 ₽

at 66.28

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1667

92.86 ₽

at 46.43

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

641.20 ₽

at 91.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 800.34 ₽ +345.43 (+43.2%)

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1681

37.10 ₽

at 37.10

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

398.50 ₽

at 79.70

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

366.40 ₽

at 91.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 802.00 ₽ +171.60 (+21.4%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

74.20 ₽

at 37.10

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

73.21 ₽

at 73.21

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

641.20 ₽

at 91.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 788.61 ₽ +322.73 (+40.9%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

74.20 ₽

at 37.10

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

159.40 ₽

at 79.70

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

549.60 ₽

at 91.60

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 783.20 ₽ +259.27 (+33.1%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 49%
Losing outcome 29%
About break-even 22%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant

Field-Tested

float up to 0.162999

446.95 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 646.48 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.134999

1 385.48 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian

Factory New

float up to 0.026599

950.04 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

697.10 ₽ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 321.05 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

1 952.71 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

665.62 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

169.77 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

Variant 2 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Shadow Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 only The Phoenix Collection Variant 6 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +161.62 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +324.37 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Phoenix Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2114580 · The CS20 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 352.14₽ · invest 766.66₽
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168726 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076513 instead of 0.075818
Craft 2127634 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 352.01₽ · invest 765.89₽
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171589 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077509 instead of 0.075818
Craft 2125040 · The Fever Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 348.69₽ · invest 752.53₽
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171589 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077509 instead of 0.075818
Craft 2131698 · The Huntsman Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 324.86₽ · invest 875.41₽
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171589 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077509 instead of 0.075818

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build