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The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +4.07$

Invest 9.43$

Average return 13.50$

ROI +43.2%

Chance of profit 72%

With float: invest at least 23.36 $, profit at most −9.87 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

0.78 $

at 0.78

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1667

1.09 $

at 0.55

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

7.55 $

at 1.08

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.43 $ +4.07 (+43.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 49%
Losing outcome 29%
About break-even 22%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant

Field-Tested

float up to 0.162999

5.26 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31.17 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.134999

16.32 $ 22.50%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian

Factory New

float up to 0.026599

11.19 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

8.21 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15.56 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

23.00 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

7.84 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

2.00 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

Variant 2 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Shadow Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 only The Phoenix Collection Variant 6 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.90 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.82 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Phoenix Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2114580 · The CS20 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 4.15$ · invest 9.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168726 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076513 instead of 0.075818
Craft 2127634 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 4.15$ · invest 9.02$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171589 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077509 instead of 0.075818
Craft 2125040 · The Fever Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 4.11$ · invest 8.86$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171589 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077509 instead of 0.075818
Craft 2131698 · The Huntsman Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 3.83$ · invest 10.31$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171589 instead of 0.166727; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077509 instead of 0.075818

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build