The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft was not checked against the market at night (only the best are) or there were not enough listings. The numbers below are at average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will count by live listings right now.

Average profit +147.87₽

Invest 470.27₽

Average return 618.14₽

ROI +31.4%

Chance of profit 34%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 112.48₽ · profit at most −494.35₽ (−44.4%) · chance of profit at most 2%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 7% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 60.53 → 130.74 ₽

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) × 6 7% of the wear range fits at least ×2.51 222.90 → 559.48 ₽

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) × 3 7% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 186.84 → 422.26 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 2 contracts · medium (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

60.53 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×6

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

222.90 ₽

at 37.15

Steam

×3

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

186.84 ₽

at 62.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 470.27 ₽ +147.87 (+31.4%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

181.59 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×6

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

222.90 ₽

at 37.15

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

62.28 ₽

at 62.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 466.77 ₽ +145.50 (+31.2%)

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

121.06 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×6

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

222.90 ₽

at 37.15

Steam

×2

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

124.56 ₽

at 62.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 468.52 ₽ +146.68 (+31.3%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

163.92 ₽

at 54.64

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

302.65 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×2

P250 | Red Tide

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1652

36.28 ₽

at 18.14

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 502.85 ₽ +94.77 (+18.9%)

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

363.18 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×2

P250 | Red Tide

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

36.28 ₽

at 18.14

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

74.30 ₽

at 37.15

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 473.76 ₽ +129.72 (+27.4%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 34%
Losing outcome 64%
About break-even 2%

in profit

Desert Eagle | Mulberry

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

1 169.94 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint

Factory New

float up to 0.046899

484.27 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Bleeding Edge

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

488.47 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

522.14 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 582.12 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

770.51 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

432.82 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

95.02 ₽ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Radiant Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Radiant Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Radiant Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Radiant Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +69.20 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +115.18 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Radiant Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2135963 · The Prisma Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 161.35₽ · invest 448.55₽
rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074237 instead of 0.075273; M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New): float at most 0.003707 instead of 0.004614
Craft 2111687 · The Bank Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 152.14₽ · invest 435.74₽
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077166 instead of 0.075273; M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New): float at most 0.006270 instead of 0.004614
Craft 2120706 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 147.31₽ · invest 436.71₽
MP9 | Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074237 instead of 0.075273; M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New): float at most 0.003707 instead of 0.004614
Craft 2128384 · The Gamma Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 146.54₽ · invest 455.64₽
rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075203 instead of 0.075273; M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New): float at most 0.004552 instead of 0.004614
Craft 2119313 · The Clutch Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 146.04₽ · invest 430.24₽
MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074756 instead of 0.075273; M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New): float at most 0.004161 instead of 0.004614

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Radiant Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build